Four reasons to start worrying about inflation — the end of tariff refunds is one of them
Published . Updated .
Dennis DeBusschere of 22V Research says companies that previously used tariff refunds to ease cost pressures will increasingly pass on those higher costs to consumers.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR-0.4% 30d
Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF
SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF-0.5% 30d
iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- CAT Caterpillar-8.9% 30d
Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- DE Deere-5.6% 30d
Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- WMT Walmart+11.0% 30d
Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- NKE Nike+4.9% 30d
Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- COST Costco Wholesale+11.0% 30d
Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLINo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XRTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| TIPNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CATNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DENo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| WMTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| NKE | -0.07% | -0.61% | base | -0.07% | after close | after close | after close |
| COSTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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Dennis DeBusschere of 22V Research says companies that previously used tariff refunds to ease cost pressures will increasingly pass on those higher costs to consumers.
Source: MarketWatch
The price since 28 Oct 2026: Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nike (NKE) | that day | -0.07% | still updating |
| Nike (NKE) | three days earlier | -0.61% | final price |
| Nike (NKE) | five days earlier | -0.07% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Lisa McClain bought Caterpillar (CAT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 30 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Caterpillar (CAT), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 31 Jul 2026. That is 89 days before publication. Filed 22 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Jonathan Jackson sold Walmart (WMT) (jointly held), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 30 days before publication. Filed 19 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 33 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a dependent child), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 11 Sep 2026. That is 47 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 28 Aug 2026. That is 61 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros sold Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 62 days before publication. Filed 10 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Nike (NKE), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 68 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Costco Wholesale (COST) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 33 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Richard W. Allen sold Costco Wholesale (COST) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 18 Sep 2026. That is 40 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Costco Wholesale (COST) (held by a dependent child), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 11 Sep 2026. That is 47 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
Companies tied to this story
- XLI Select Sector Spdr Tr
For “Four reasons to start worrying about inflation — the end of tariff refunds is one of them,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- XRT Spdr Series Trust
Spdr Series Trust (XRT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 28 Oct 2026 story “Four reasons to start worrying about inflation — the end of tariff refunds is one of them.” Reason on file: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- TIP Ishares Tr
For “Four reasons to start worrying about inflation — the end of tariff refunds is one of them,” Ishares Tr (TIP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- CAT Caterpillar
Caterpillar (CAT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 28 Oct 2026 story “Four reasons to start worrying about inflation — the end of tariff refunds is one of them.” Reason on file: Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- DE Deere
For “Four reasons to start worrying about inflation — the end of tariff refunds is one of them,” Deere (DE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- WMT Walmart
Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 28 Oct 2026 story “Four reasons to start worrying about inflation — the end of tariff refunds is one of them.” Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- NKE Nike
Nike (NKE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 28 Oct 2026 story “Four reasons to start worrying about inflation — the end of tariff refunds is one of them.” Reason on file: Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- COST Costco Wholesale
Costco Wholesale (COST) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 28 Oct 2026 story “Four reasons to start worrying about inflation — the end of tariff refunds is one of them.” Reason on file: Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
“Four reasons to start worrying about inflation — the end of tariff refunds is one of them” (28 Oct 2026) reaches Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) through this story.
For Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI), the reason on file says Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
Also listed, Spdr Series Trust (XRT): SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
The price range for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI), and the dates in the story
TIP traded between 103.77 and 105.67 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 105.27. XLI traded between 163.00 and 172.33 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 167.94. XRT traded between 83.12 and 86.10 across 2 sessions. The latest close on file is 83.23.
A simple score for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
54 out of 100Price not final
“Four reasons to start worrying about inflation — the end of tariff refunds is one of them” scores 54 out of 100. The score uses 2 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.