Hormuz Oil Flows Unlikely to Return to Pre-War Levels, Rystad Says
Published . Updated .
Key takeaways
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This report is about oil and defense. Names like XOM and CVX typically gain because exxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+8.9% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+8.9% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF+0.3% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “hormuz” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+6.2% 16d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+12.5% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+4.8% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- SHEL Shell-2.5% 12d
Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +4.37% | +7.30% | base | +0.28% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | +1.44% | +2.16% | base | -0.19% | after close | after close | after close |
| ITA | -3.96% | -0.11% | base | +1.10% | after close | after close | after close |
| BWET | -1.54% | +2.86% | base | -8.08% | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | +0.06% | +1.89% | base | -0.88% | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | +0.19% | +1.58% | base | -0.75% | after close | after close | after close |
| COP | +0.74% | +2.12% | base | -1.53% | after close | after close | after close |
| SHEL | -0.17% | +2.59% | base | -0.53% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Hormuz Oil Flows Unlikely to Return to Pre-War Levels, Rystad Says Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
How United States Oil Fund (USO) moved after the last 19 energy shocks
Across 19 earlier stories, United States Oil Fund (USO) the next day averaged -1.45%. The largest gain was +3.26% and the largest drop was -3.69%, from 19 prices.
| Company | When | Average | Largest gain | Largest drop | Prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | the next day | -1.45% | +3.26% | -3.69% | 19 |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days later | +0.41% | +6.12% | -1.37% | 19 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | the next day | -1.35% | +3.24% | -1.69% | 19 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days later | -0.05% | +2.27% | -0.87% | 19 |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | the next day | +1.37% | +1.91% | +0.30% | 3 |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | three days later | +4.42% | +5.99% | +1.28% | 3 |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | the next day | +0.26% | +0.48% | +0.12% | 15 |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | three days later | +4.59% | +4.59% | +4.59% | 15 |
- US paying most for Hormuz oil shock with world’s largest fuel bill
- U.S. Army Says It Has Helped 1.5 Billion Barrels of Oil Out of Hormuz
- QatarEnergy in talks to buy up to 3 MMtpy from Woodside's Louisiana LNG as Hormuz disruptions persist
- Container ship sinks near the Strait of Hormuz as shipping attacks increase
- The Week in Charts: Crude tankers in correction mode after Hormuz-driven ‘super spike’ | Africa’s LNG ambitions grow as Hormuz disruption exposes supply risk
- US says helped Gulf nations export 1.5 billion barrels of oil through Hormuz
How far United States Oil Fund (USO) has moved since 3 Nov 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | that day | -8.08% | still updating |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | three days earlier | +2.86% | final price |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | five days earlier | -1.54% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | that day | -1.53% | still updating |
| Conocophillips (COP) | three days earlier | +2.12% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | five days earlier | +0.74% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | that day | -0.75% | still updating |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | +1.58% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | +0.19% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | that day | +1.10% | still updating |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | three days earlier | -0.11% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | five days earlier | -3.96% | final price |
| SHEL | that day | -0.53% | still updating |
| SHEL | three days earlier | +2.59% | final price |
| SHEL | five days earlier | -0.17% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | that day | +0.28% | still updating |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | +7.30% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | +4.37% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | that day | -0.19% | still updating |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | +2.16% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | +1.44% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | that day | -0.88% | still updating |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | +1.89% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | +0.06% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 20 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 64 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 20 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 41 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 62 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 71 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 74 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 74 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Strait of Hormuz, seven days against thirty
Geopolitics Alpha has 190 stories about Strait of Hormuz from the past 7 days and 497 stories from the past 30. That is faster than its usual pace over the past month. “Hormuz Oil Flows Unlikely to Return to Pre-War Levels, Rystad Says” is tagged to Strait of Hormuz.
Who gains and who pays if Strait of Hormuz stays in the story
The side that tends to collect
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence in the 3 Nov 2026 story “Hormuz Oil Flows Unlikely to Return to Pre-War Levels, Rystad Says.” Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
For “Hormuz Oil Flows Unlikely to Return to Pre-War Levels, Rystad Says,” Chevron (CVX) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- OXY Occidental Petroleum
For “Hormuz Oil Flows Unlikely to Return to Pre-War Levels, Rystad Says,” Occidental Petroleum (OXY) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
No up or down call on file
- USO United States Oil Fund
United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 3 Nov 2026 story “Hormuz Oil Flows Unlikely to Return to Pre-War Levels, Rystad Says.” Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
For “Hormuz Oil Flows Unlikely to Return to Pre-War Levels, Rystad Says,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 3 Nov 2026 story “Hormuz Oil Flows Unlikely to Return to Pre-War Levels, Rystad Says.” Reason on file: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story
- BWET Amplify Commodity Trust
In “Hormuz Oil Flows Unlikely to Return to Pre-War Levels, Rystad Says,” Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “hormuz” (tanker shipping) in this story
United States Oil Fund (USO) and the energy link
“Hormuz Oil Flows Unlikely to Return to Pre-War Levels, Rystad Says” (3 Nov 2026) reaches United States Oil Fund (USO) through Strait of Hormuz.
What ties United States Oil Fund (USO) to the headline is this: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is here too. Its reason reads: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
What this energy story puts on the calendar
ITA traded between 197.59 and 215.76 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 214.70. USO traded between 141.82 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 156.89. XLE traded between 62.95 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 67.26.
How solid the energy case looks
46 out of 100Price not final
“Hormuz Oil Flows Unlikely to Return to Pre-War Levels, Rystad Says” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.