Geopolitics Alpha

In three days, the defense forces disabled 10% of Russia's oil refining capacity

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In three days, the defense forces disabled 10% of Russia's oil refining capacity

Over the course of three days, Ukrainian forces carried out strikes on three Russian oil refineries, which together account for about 10% of the aggressor state’s oil refining capacity.

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • CRAK VanEck Oil Refiners ETF

    VanEck Oil Refiners ETF: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story.

  • XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+12.1% 30d

    Energy Select Sector SPDR: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story.

  • USO United States Oil Fund+13.9% 30d

    United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF-3.0% 30d

    iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “defense” (defense) in this story.

  • VLO Valero Energy+0.7% 30d

    Valero Energy (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story.

  • MPC Marathon Petroleum+13.1% 9d

    Marathon Petroleum (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story.

  • PSX Phillips 66+12.1% 30d

    Phillips 66 (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story.

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+13.4% 16d

    ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
CRAKNo price data for this ticker———————
XLE-0.51%-2.20%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
USO-1.54%-1.29%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
ITA-1.26%-0.97%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
VLONo price data for this ticker———————
MPCNo price data for this ticker———————
PSXNo price data for this ticker———————
XOM-1.45%-2.77%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

Market Call

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In three days, the defense forces disabled 10% of Russia's oil refining capacity UA.NEWS

Source: UA.NEWS

United States Oil Fund (USO) compared with energy stocks (XLE) since 1 Nov 2026

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)three days earlier-0.97%final price
IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)five days earlier-1.26%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)three days earlier-1.29%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)five days earlier-1.54%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)three days earlier-2.20%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)five days earlier-0.51%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)three days earlier-2.77%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)five days earlier-1.45%final price

Congressional trades in the stocks in this story

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

Who gains and who loses around United States Oil Fund (USO)

Companies mentioned with this story

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “In three days, the defense forces disabled 10% of Russia's oil refining capacity.” Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr

    Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “In three days, the defense forces disabled 10% of Russia's oil refining capacity.” Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • CRAK Vaneck Etf Trust

    Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “In three days, the defense forces disabled 10% of Russia's oil refining capacity.” Reason on file: VanEck Oil Refiners ETF: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story

  • ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF

    For “In three days, the defense forces disabled 10% of Russia's oil refining capacity,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “defense” (defense) in this story

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings

    For “In three days, the defense forces disabled 10% of Russia's oil refining capacity,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • CVX Chevron

    In “In three days, the defense forces disabled 10% of Russia's oil refining capacity,” Chevron (CVX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • VLO Valero Energy

    In “In three days, the defense forces disabled 10% of Russia's oil refining capacity,” Valero Energy (VLO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Valero Energy (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story

  • MPC Marathon Petroleum

    For “In three days, the defense forces disabled 10% of Russia's oil refining capacity,” Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Marathon Petroleum (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story

United States Oil Fund (USO) and the energy link

United States Oil Fund (USO) is the company in “In three days, the defense forces disabled 10% of Russia's oil refining capacity,” the 1 Nov 2026 Energy story.

United States Oil Fund (USO) is on the page because United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is here too. Its reason reads: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

Dates and price levels for United States Oil Fund (USO)

USO traded between 141.82 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 168.83. XLE traded between 62.06 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 70.00.

The energy score for United States Oil Fund (USO)

46 out of 100

“In three days, the defense forces disabled 10% of Russia's oil refining capacity” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.