Is the Buffett Indicator Flashing a Warning Sign to Stock Market Investors?
Published . Updated .
A key stock market valuation metric popularized by the Oracle of Omaha sits at 234%, near its highest level ever.
Directly affected
- ORCL Oracle-12.8% 30d
Named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF-1.7% 30d
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stock market” (the broad US market) in this story.
- QQQ Invesco QQQ-0.7% 16d
Invesco QQQ: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stock market” (the broad US market) in this story.
- XLK Technology Select Sector SPDR+9.1% 16d
Technology Select Sector SPDR holds the technology sector that Oracle belongs to, so it often moves with news about it.
- MSFT Microsoft+3.7% 30d
Microsoft is a peer of Oracle in prepackaged software; rivals often move on the same news.
- PLTR Palantir Technologies+13.5% 30d
Palantir Technologies is a peer of Oracle in prepackaged software; rivals often move on the same news.
- CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings+18.7% 17d
CrowdStrike Holdings is a peer of Oracle in prepackaged software; rivals often move on the same news.
- SHOP Shopify+26.0% 30d
Shopify is a peer of Oracle in prepackaged software; rivals often move on the same news.
- CRM Salesforce-4.2% 30d
Salesforce is a peer of Oracle in prepackaged software; rivals often move on the same news.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | +2.79% | +2.37% | base | -0.02% | after close | after close | after close |
| DIA | -0.46% | +1.22% | base | +0.32% | after close | after close | after close |
| QQQ | +2.00% | +2.99% | base | +1.12% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLKNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| MSFTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| PLTRNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CRWDNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SHOPNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CRMNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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Is the Buffett Indicator Flashing a Warning Sign to Stock Market Investors? The Motley Fool
Source: The Motley Fool
The price since 26 Oct 2026: Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) | that day | +0.32% | final price |
| Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) | three days earlier | +1.22% | final price |
| Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) | five days earlier | -0.46% | final price |
| ORCL | that day | -0.02% | final price |
| ORCL | three days earlier | +2.37% | final price |
| ORCL | five days earlier | +2.79% | final price |
| Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) | that day | +1.12% | final price |
| Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) | three days earlier | +2.99% | final price |
| Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) | five days earlier | +2.00% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Oracle (ORCL) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 30 Sep 2026. That is 26 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Oracle (ORCL) (held by a dependent child), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 30 Sep 2026. That is 26 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Oracle (ORCL) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 31 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Lisa McClain bought Microsoft (MSFT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 30 Sep 2026. That is 26 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael Rulli sold Microsoft (MSFT), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 28 days before publication. Filed 2 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar sold Microsoft (MSFT), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Sep 2026. That is 32 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Palantir Technologies (PLTR), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Palantir Technologies (PLTR), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 17 Aug 2026. That is 70 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Palantir Technologies (PLTR), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 10 Aug 2026. That is 77 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 66 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros bought CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 7 Aug 2026. That is 80 days before publication. Filed 10 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar sold Salesforce (CRM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Sep 2026. That is 32 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA)
Companies mentioned with this story
- DIA Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust
For “Is the Buffett Indicator Flashing a Warning Sign to Stock Market Investors?,” Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stock market” (the broad US market) in this story
- QQQ Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1
Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “Is the Buffett Indicator Flashing a Warning Sign to Stock Market Investors?.” Reason on file: Invesco QQQ: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stock market” (the broad US market) in this story
- IWM Ishares Tr
In “Is the Buffett Indicator Flashing a Warning Sign to Stock Market Investors?,” Ishares Tr (IWM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares Russell 2000 ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stock market” (the broad US market) in this story
- RSP Invesco Exchange Traded Fd T
For “Is the Buffett Indicator Flashing a Warning Sign to Stock Market Investors?,” Invesco Exchange Traded Fd T (RSP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stock market” (the broad US market) in this story
- VTI Vanguard Index Fds
For “Is the Buffett Indicator Flashing a Warning Sign to Stock Market Investors?,” Vanguard Index Fds (VTI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stock market” (the broad US market) in this story
Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA)
Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) is the company in “Is the Buffett Indicator Flashing a Warning Sign to Stock Market Investors?,” the 26 Oct 2026 this story story.
For Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA), the reason on file says SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stock market” (the broad US market) in this story
Also listed, Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ): Invesco QQQ: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stock market” (the broad US market) in this story
Price levels for Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA)
DIA traded between 504.92 and 522.62 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 515.65. IWM traded between 269.88 and 284.63 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 275.72. QQQ traded between 701.18 and 762.84 across 16 sessions. The latest close on file is 704.37.
How strong the case is around Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA)
40 out of 100
“Is the Buffett Indicator Flashing a Warning Sign to Stock Market Investors?” scores 40 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 5 linked companies.