Marathon Petroleum's Nov. 3 Earnings: 3 Red Flags That Could Crash The Refining Giant's Party
Published . Updated .
Covered by 2 outlets: 24/7 Wall St., Yahoo Finance.
Who covered it: Center 1 · Not rated 1. How we rate outlets
Marathon Petroleum heads into its November 3 earnings call riding a historic rally and a blowout quarter, but three quiet pressures are building beneath the surface that could turn another beat into a selloff.
Directly affected
- MPC Marathon Petroleum+10.2% 7d
Named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+4.8% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “petroleum” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.5% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “petroleum” (oil) in this story.
- CRAK VanEck Oil Refiners ETF
VanEck Oil Refiners ETF: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+9.0% 13d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “petroleum” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+7.9% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “petroleum” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+8.0% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “petroleum” (oil) in this story.
- BP BP p.l.c+5.1% 17d
BP p.l.c (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “petroleum” (oil) in this story.
- VLO Valero Energy+1.2% 30d
Valero Energy (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPC | +4.26% | +6.82% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| USO | -2.52% | -0.26% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | -1.29% | +1.72% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CRAKPrices arriving within minutes | — | — | — | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | -2.14% | +1.35% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | -1.18% | +1.19% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| COP | -2.27% | +1.58% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BPPrices arriving within minutes | — | — | — | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| VLO | +9.72% | +9.74% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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Marathon Petroleum's Nov. 3 Earnings: 3 Red Flags That Could Crash The Refining Giant's Party 24/7 Wall St.
Source: 24/7 Wall St.
How far United States Oil Fund (USO) has moved since 29 Oct 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conocophillips (COP) | three days earlier | +1.58% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | five days earlier | -2.27% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | +1.19% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | -1.18% | final price |
| Marathon Petroleum (MPC) | three days earlier | +6.82% | final price |
| Marathon Petroleum (MPC) | five days earlier | +4.26% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | -0.26% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | -2.52% | final price |
| Valero Energy (VLO) | three days earlier | +9.74% | final price |
| Valero Energy (VLO) | five days earlier | +9.72% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | +1.72% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | -1.29% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | +1.35% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | -2.14% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. David J. Taylor sold Marathon Petroleum (MPC), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 22 Sep 2026. That is 37 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 59 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $250,001 - $500,000 on 31 Jul 2026. That is 90 days before publication. Filed 22 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 36 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 57 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 64 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 64 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 66 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around United States Oil Fund (USO)
Companies mentioned with this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
In “Marathon Petroleum's Nov. 3 Earnings: 3 Red Flags That Could Crash The Refining Giant's Party,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “petroleum” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “Marathon Petroleum's Nov. 3 Earnings: 3 Red Flags That Could Crash The Refining Giant's Party.” Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “petroleum” (oil) in this story
- CRAK Vaneck Etf Trust
For “Marathon Petroleum's Nov. 3 Earnings: 3 Red Flags That Could Crash The Refining Giant's Party,” Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: VanEck Oil Refiners ETF: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story
- MPC Marathon Petroleum
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “Marathon Petroleum's Nov. 3 Earnings: 3 Red Flags That Could Crash The Refining Giant's Party.” Reason on file: Marathon Petroleum (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
For “Marathon Petroleum's Nov. 3 Earnings: 3 Red Flags That Could Crash The Refining Giant's Party,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “petroleum” (oil) in this story
- VLO Valero Energy
Valero Energy (VLO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “Marathon Petroleum's Nov. 3 Earnings: 3 Red Flags That Could Crash The Refining Giant's Party.” Reason on file: Valero Energy (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story
- CVX Chevron
Chevron (CVX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “Marathon Petroleum's Nov. 3 Earnings: 3 Red Flags That Could Crash The Refining Giant's Party.” Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “petroleum” (oil) in this story
- COP Conocophillips
In “Marathon Petroleum's Nov. 3 Earnings: 3 Red Flags That Could Crash The Refining Giant's Party,” Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “petroleum” (oil) in this story
United States Oil Fund (USO)
“Marathon Petroleum's Nov. 3 Earnings: 3 Red Flags That Could Crash The Refining Giant's Party” (29 Oct 2026) reaches United States Oil Fund (USO) through this story.
The link for United States Oil Fund (USO) is this: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “petroleum” (oil) in this story
Also listed, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE): Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “petroleum” (oil) in this story
The price range for United States Oil Fund (USO), and the dates in the story
USO traded between 141.82 and 169.96 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 163.62. XLE traded between 61.05 and 69.86 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 68.23.
What the saved facts support for United States Oil Fund (USO)
54 out of 100
“Marathon Petroleum's Nov. 3 Earnings: 3 Red Flags That Could Crash The Refining Giant's Party” scores 54 out of 100. The score uses 2 sources, and 8 linked companies.