Markets Price Fed and ECB Paths More Hawkishly Than Indosuez's Baseline
Published . Updated .
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Money markets are pricing about 1.5 Federal Reserve rate hikes and two European Central Bank increases over the next 12 months.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-2.9% 30d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.2% 30d
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- VGK Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF
Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF holds stocks listed in Europe, which this story is about (“ecb”).
- BAC Bank of America-11.4% 30d
Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase+0.1% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- DHI D.R. Horton+9.3% 30d
D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- SCHW The Charles Schwab
The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | -0.24% | -0.19% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| IEF | -0.38% | -0.22% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| VGK | +0.86% | +3.36% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BAC | +0.30% | +4.48% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| JPM | +1.86% | +5.31% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| DHI | +0.44% | +3.14% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SCHW | -3.01% | +2.05% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Markets Price Fed and ECB Paths More Hawkishly Than Indosuez's Baseline www.tokenpost.com
Source: www.tokenpost.com
The price since 8 Nov 2026: Ishares Tr (TLT) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Of America (BAC) | three days earlier | +4.48% | final price |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | five days earlier | +0.30% | final price |
| Horton D R (DHI) | three days earlier | +3.14% | final price |
| Horton D R (DHI) | five days earlier | +0.44% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | three days earlier | -0.22% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | five days earlier | -0.38% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | three days earlier | +5.31% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | five days earlier | +1.86% | final price |
| Schwab Charles (SCHW) | three days earlier | +2.05% | final price |
| Schwab Charles (SCHW) | five days earlier | -3.01% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | three days earlier | -0.19% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | five days earlier | -0.24% | final price |
| Vanguard Intl Equity Index F (VGK) | three days earlier | +3.36% | final price |
| Vanguard Intl Equity Index F (VGK) | five days earlier | +0.86% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Sen. John Boozman bought Ishares Tr (IEF) (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 60 days before publication. Filed 21 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 60 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Laurel Lee sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 76 days before publication. Filed 16 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 65 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 65 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 73 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Horton D R (DHI), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Aug 2026. That is 83 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Ishares Tr (TLT)
Companies tied to this story
- TLT Ishares Tr
Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 8 Nov 2026 story “Markets Price Fed and ECB Paths More Hawkishly Than Indosuez's Baseline.” Reason on file: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- IEF Ishares Tr
For “Markets Price Fed and ECB Paths More Hawkishly Than Indosuez's Baseline,” Ishares Tr (IEF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- VGK Vanguard Intl Equity Index F
For “Markets Price Fed and ECB Paths More Hawkishly Than Indosuez's Baseline,” Vanguard Intl Equity Index F (VGK) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF holds stocks listed in Europe, which this story is about (“ecb”)
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase
In “Markets Price Fed and ECB Paths More Hawkishly Than Indosuez's Baseline,” Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- BAC Bank Of America
Bank Of America (BAC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 8 Nov 2026 story “Markets Price Fed and ECB Paths More Hawkishly Than Indosuez's Baseline.” Reason on file: Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- DHI Horton D R
For “Markets Price Fed and ECB Paths More Hawkishly Than Indosuez's Baseline,” Horton D R (DHI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- SCHW Schwab Charles
For “Markets Price Fed and ECB Paths More Hawkishly Than Indosuez's Baseline,” Schwab Charles (SCHW) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
Ishares Tr (TLT)
Ishares Tr (TLT) is the company in “Markets Price Fed and ECB Paths More Hawkishly Than Indosuez's Baseline,” the 8 Nov 2026 this story story.
Ishares Tr (TLT) is on the page because iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
Ishares Tr (IEF) is here too. Its reason reads: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
Dates and price levels for Ishares Tr (TLT)
IEF traded between 88.64 and 90.69 across 17 sessions. The latest close on file is 90.08. TLT traded between 76.44 and 80.56 across 17 sessions. The latest close on file is 79.46.
What the saved facts support for Ishares Tr (TLT)
46 out of 100
“Markets Price Fed and ECB Paths More Hawkishly Than Indosuez's Baseline” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 7 linked companies.