Midterm election fallout raises new questions over Fed, debt and tariffs
Published . Updated .
Key takeaways
- Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors Head of Research; Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Co-Founder; and Jimmy Pethokoukis, AEI Economic Policy Analyst, discuss Fed policy, debt risks, tariffs and markets.
- Exposed: TLT, IEF, XLI, JPM, CAT
- Market reaction: price tracking starts with the next trading session.
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Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors Head of Research; Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Co-Founder; and Jimmy Pethokoukis, AEI Economic Policy Analyst, discuss Fed policy, debt risks, tariffs and markets.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.8% 30d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF-0.7% 30d
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR-0.3% 30d
Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase+0.1% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- CAT Caterpillar-23.2% 30d
Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- BAC Bank of America-11.4% 30d
Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- DE Deere-0.6% 30d
Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- WMT Walmart+12.9% 30d
Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | -0.09% | +0.94% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| IEF | -0.34% | +0.64% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLI | -1.66% | -2.29% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| JPM | +0.41% | -0.26% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CAT | +14.53% | -0.17% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BAC | +2.47% | +0.71% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| DE | -3.81% | +1.40% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| WMT | -4.79% | -1.04% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Midterm election fallout raises new questions over Fed, debt and tariffs CNBC
Source: CNBC
Ishares Tr (TLT) since this story, compared with the market
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Of America (BAC) | three days earlier | +0.71% | final price |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | five days earlier | +2.47% | final price |
| Caterpillar (CAT) | three days earlier | -0.17% | final price |
| Caterpillar (CAT) | five days earlier | +14.53% | final price |
| Deere (DE) | three days earlier | +1.40% | final price |
| Deere (DE) | five days earlier | -3.81% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | three days earlier | +0.64% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | five days earlier | -0.34% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | three days earlier | -0.26% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | five days earlier | +0.41% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | three days earlier | +0.94% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | five days earlier | -0.09% | final price |
| Walmart (WMT) | three days earlier | -1.04% | final price |
| Walmart (WMT) | five days earlier | -4.79% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) | three days earlier | -2.29% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) | five days earlier | -1.66% | final price |
Congressional trades in the stocks in this story
- Sen. John Boozman bought Ishares Tr (IEF) (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 56 days before publication. Filed 21 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 61 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 61 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Lisa McClain bought Caterpillar (CAT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 37 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 56 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Laurel Lee sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 72 days before publication. Filed 16 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 33 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Jonathan Jackson sold Walmart (WMT) (jointly held), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 37 days before publication. Filed 19 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 40 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Ishares Tr (TLT)
Companies mentioned with this story
- TLT Ishares Tr
In “Midterm election fallout raises new questions over Fed, debt and tariffs,” Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- IEF Ishares Tr
In “Midterm election fallout raises new questions over Fed, debt and tariffs,” Ishares Tr (IEF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- XLI Select Sector Spdr Tr
For “Midterm election fallout raises new questions over Fed, debt and tariffs,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase
Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Midterm election fallout raises new questions over Fed, debt and tariffs.” Reason on file: JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- CAT Caterpillar
Caterpillar (CAT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Midterm election fallout raises new questions over Fed, debt and tariffs.” Reason on file: Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- BAC Bank Of America
For “Midterm election fallout raises new questions over Fed, debt and tariffs,” Bank Of America (BAC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- DE Deere
For “Midterm election fallout raises new questions over Fed, debt and tariffs,” Deere (DE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- WMT Walmart
For “Midterm election fallout raises new questions over Fed, debt and tariffs,” Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
Ishares Tr (TLT)
The 4 Nov 2026 story “Midterm election fallout raises new questions over Fed, debt and tariffs” names Ishares Tr (TLT) because of this story.
Ishares Tr (TLT) is on the page because iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
Ishares Tr (IEF) is here too. Its reason reads: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
The price range for Ishares Tr (TLT), and the dates in the story
IEF traded between 88.64 and 91.23 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 90.08. TLT traded between 76.44 and 81.94 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 79.46. XLI traded between 163.00 and 172.33 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 169.73.
How strong the case is around Ishares Tr (TLT)
46 out of 100
“Midterm election fallout raises new questions over Fed, debt and tariffs” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.