Oil can hit $150 if conflict escalates, but a price collapse is more likely: Fereidun Fesharaki
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FGE NexantECA's Fereidun Fesharaki says that he is certain a deal cannot be made in the between U.S. and Iran as it is impossible that the Iranian regime would let the Strait of Hormuz be open for oil to flow at pre-war levels.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund-1.1% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.9% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “iran” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF+1.1% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+3.0% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- OXY Occidental Petroleum+10.3% 18d
Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+5.4% 19d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +10.89% | +3.88% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | +7.65% | -0.44% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BWET | +44.12% | +15.72% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| ITA | +0.66% | -4.98% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | +7.73% | +0.33% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | +6.86% | +1.02% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| OXY | +8.33% | +1.02% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| COP | +7.34% | +0.71% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Oil can hit $150 if conflict escalates, but a price collapse is more likely: Fereidun Fesharaki CNBC
Source: CNBC
15 earlier Strait of Hormuz stories for United States Oil Fund (USO)
United States Oil Fund (USO) the next day, across 15 earlier stories: average -6.14%, largest gain -3.69%, largest drop -6.32%, from 15 prices.
| Company | When | Average | Largest gain | Largest drop | Prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | the next day | -6.14% | -3.69% | -6.32% | 15 |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days later | -11.52% | -1.37% | -12.25% | 15 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | the next day | -4.25% | -1.51% | -4.71% | 7 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days later | -9.85% | -0.87% | -11.35% | 7 |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | the next day | -4.94% | -1.64% | -5.21% | 13 |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days later | -10.85% | -0.44% | -11.72% | 13 |
| Chevron (CVX) | the next day | -4.14% | -2.02% | -4.38% | 10 |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days later | -7.72% | -0.77% | -8.59% | 9 |
- Iran's IRGC: 2 'violating' oil tankers exploded after hitting mines in Hormuz
- Oil slips as Iran says Qatar-brokered plan could reopen Hormuz in two days
- Two oil tankers explode after hitting mine in Hormuz Strait, IRGC spokesperson says
- Pakistan LNG Cargo Attacked Near Hormuz Had Iranian Approval
- Oil Falls Ahead of U.S. Midterms Despite Hormuz Tensions on Hopes for Diplomatic Solution
- Shafaq News..IRGC Navy: Two oil tankers explode in Hormuz
United States Oil Fund (USO) compared with energy stocks (XLE) since 10 Nov 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| BWET | three days earlier | +15.72% | final price |
| BWET | five days earlier | +44.12% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | three days earlier | +0.71% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | five days earlier | +7.34% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | +1.02% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | +6.86% | final price |
| ITA | three days earlier | -4.98% | final price |
| ITA | five days earlier | +0.66% | final price |
| OXY | three days earlier | +1.02% | final price |
| OXY | five days earlier | +8.33% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | +3.88% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | +10.89% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | -0.44% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | +7.65% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | +0.33% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | +7.73% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 27 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 71 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 27 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 48 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 81 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 76 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 78 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 81 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
How busy Strait of Hormuz has been lately
Geopolitics Alpha has 178 stories about Strait of Hormuz from the past 7 days and 660 stories from the past 30. That is about its usual pace over the past month. “Oil can hit $150 if conflict escalates, but a price collapse is more likely: Fereidun Fesharaki” is tagged to Strait of Hormuz.
Companies in energy around United States Oil Fund (USO)
Companies mentioned with this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
For “Oil can hit $150 if conflict escalates, but a price collapse is more likely: Fereidun Fesharaki,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
For “Oil can hit $150 if conflict escalates, but a price collapse is more likely: Fereidun Fesharaki,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
In “Oil can hit $150 if conflict escalates, but a price collapse is more likely: Fereidun Fesharaki,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
Chevron (CVX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 10 Nov 2026 story “Oil can hit $150 if conflict escalates, but a price collapse is more likely: Fereidun Fesharaki.” Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- COP Conocophillips
In “Oil can hit $150 if conflict escalates, but a price collapse is more likely: Fereidun Fesharaki,” Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- SHEL Shell
For “Oil can hit $150 if conflict escalates, but a price collapse is more likely: Fereidun Fesharaki,” Shell (SHEL) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
United States Oil Fund (USO) and the energy link
On 10 Nov 2026, “Oil can hit $150 if conflict escalates, but a price collapse is more likely: Fereidun Fesharaki” is the story that connects United States Oil Fund (USO) to Strait of Hormuz.
United States Oil Fund (USO) is on the page because United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Also listed, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE): Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Dates and price levels for United States Oil Fund (USO)
USO traded between 143.02 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 148.41. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70. XOM traded between 167.40 and 188.47 across 17 sessions. The latest close on file is 169.46.
How solid the energy case looks
46 out of 100
“Oil can hit $150 if conflict escalates, but a price collapse is more likely: Fereidun Fesharaki” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 6 linked companies.