Oil Declines Ahead of Midterm Elections Despite Hormuz Attacks
Published . Updated .
This report is about oil and tanker shipping. Names like XOM and CVX typically gain because exxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+13.9% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+12.1% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “hormuz” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF-3.0% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “hormuz” (defense) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+13.4% 16d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+15.7% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+8.3% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- FRO Frontline+14.2% 30d
Frontline (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “hormuz” (tanker shipping) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | -1.54% | -1.29% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | -0.51% | -2.20% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BWETNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ITANo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XOM | -1.45% | -2.77% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | -1.54% | -2.69% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| COPNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| FRO | -2.94% | -2.39% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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Oil Declines Ahead of Midterm Elections Despite Hormuz Attacks Bloomberg.com
Source: Bloomberg
How United States Oil Fund (USO) moved after the last 17 energy shocks
Across 17 earlier stories, United States Oil Fund (USO) the next day averaged -1.84%. The largest gain was +6.10% and the largest drop was -3.69%, from 17 prices.
| Company | When | Average | Largest gain | Largest drop | Prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | the next day | -1.84% | +6.10% | -3.69% | 17 |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days later | -0.34% | +4.59% | -1.37% | 17 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | the next day | -0.66% | +2.88% | -1.51% | 17 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days later | -0.47% | +1.30% | -0.87% | 17 |
- Oil Prices End Mixed as Traders Weigh Demand Outlook, Hormuz Shipping Risks
- Gold, silver extend weekly losses as Hormuz tensions push crude above $116 - Kitco PM Report
- Saudi Arabia wants to send 10 million barrels of oil a day around Hormuz. A former Treasury official says it may barely move prices
- Making It Through: Considering Iran’s Decision to Let a Japanese Tanker Pass Hormuz
- Tanker attacked near Strait of Hormuz: UKMTO
- Reports of Explosion, Possible Damage to Giant Oil Tanker in Strait of Hormuz
Price since this story was published: United States Oil Fund (USO)
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | -2.69% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | -1.54% | final price |
| FRO | three days earlier | -2.39% | final price |
| FRO | five days earlier | -2.94% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | -1.29% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | -1.54% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | -2.20% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | -0.51% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | -2.77% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | -1.45% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 18 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 62 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 18 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 39 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 60 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 67 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 72 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 72 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Strait of Hormuz, seven days against thirty
Geopolitics Alpha has 169 stories about Strait of Hormuz from the past 7 days and 456 stories from the past 30. That is faster than its usual pace over the past month. “Oil Declines Ahead of Midterm Elections Despite Hormuz Attacks” is tagged to Strait of Hormuz.
United States Oil Fund (USO) on one side of this energy story
Likely winners
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
For “Oil Declines Ahead of Midterm Elections Despite Hormuz Attacks,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
Chevron (CVX) tends to benefit, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “Oil Declines Ahead of Midterm Elections Despite Hormuz Attacks.” Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- OXY Occidental Petroleum
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) tends to benefit, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “Oil Declines Ahead of Midterm Elections Despite Hormuz Attacks.” Reason on file: Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
No up or down call on file
- USO United States Oil Fund
For “Oil Declines Ahead of Midterm Elections Despite Hormuz Attacks,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “Oil Declines Ahead of Midterm Elections Despite Hormuz Attacks.” Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- BWET Amplify Commodity Trust
Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “Oil Declines Ahead of Midterm Elections Despite Hormuz Attacks.” Reason on file: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “hormuz” (tanker shipping) in this story
- ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “Oil Declines Ahead of Midterm Elections Despite Hormuz Attacks.” Reason on file: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “hormuz” (defense) in this story
How a Strait of Hormuz shock reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)
The 1 Nov 2026 story “Oil Declines Ahead of Midterm Elections Despite Hormuz Attacks” names United States Oil Fund (USO) because of Strait of Hormuz.
United States Oil Fund (USO) is on the page because United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is here too. Its reason reads: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
What this energy story puts on the calendar
BWET traded between 788.51 and 1047.07 across 17 sessions. The latest close on file is 907.20. USO traded between 141.82 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 168.83. XLE traded between 62.06 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 70.00.
A simple score for United States Oil Fund (USO)
46 out of 100
“Oil Declines Ahead of Midterm Elections Despite Hormuz Attacks” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.