Geopolitics Alpha

Oil Prices Drop 9% After Republicans Lose Congress in Midterm Elections

Published . Updated .

Key takeaways

  • Oil prices fell 9% on Wednesday in volatile trading as investors awaited Washington's next move in the US-Israeli war with Iran after…
  • Exposed: USO, XLE, XOM, CVX, COP
  • Market reaction: price tracking starts with the next trading session.

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Oil Prices Drop 9% After Republicans Lose Congress in Midterm Elections

Oil prices fell 9% on Wednesday in volatile trading as investors awaited Washington's next move in the US-Israeli war with Iran after…

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • USO United States Oil Fund+6.3% 30d

    United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.9% 30d

    Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d

    Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story.

  • ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF+1.1% 30d

    iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.

  • EIS iShares MSCI Israel ETF-4.5% 11d

    iShares MSCI Israel ETF holds stocks listed in Israel, which this story is about (“israeli”).

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+2.0% 16d

    ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • CVX Chevron+9.6% 30d

    Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • OXY Occidental Petroleum+10.3% 18d

    Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
USO+15.71%+7.84%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
XLE+8.14%+5.85%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
BWET+32.30%+28.62%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
ITA+0.77%+0.89%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
EIS+5.33%+2.36%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
XOM+8.08%+6.08%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
CVX+6.66%+5.01%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
OXY+9.89%+5.90%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

Oil Prices Drop 9% After Republicans Lose Congress in Midterm Elections MarineLink

Source: MarineLink

How far United States Oil Fund (USO) has moved since 4 Nov 2026

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
BWETthree days earlier+28.62%final price
BWETfive days earlier+32.30%final price
Chevron (CVX)three days earlier+5.01%final price
Chevron (CVX)five days earlier+6.66%final price
EISthree days earlier+2.36%final price
EISfive days earlier+5.33%final price
ITAthree days earlier+0.89%final price
ITAfive days earlier+0.77%final price
OXYthree days earlier+5.90%final price
OXYfive days earlier+9.89%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)three days earlier+7.84%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)five days earlier+15.71%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)three days earlier+5.85%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)five days earlier+8.14%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)three days earlier+6.08%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)five days earlier+8.08%final price

Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

Who collects and who pays in energy

Likely winners

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings

    In “Oil Prices Drop 9% After Republicans Lose Congress in Midterm Elections,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • CVX Chevron

    For “Oil Prices Drop 9% After Republicans Lose Congress in Midterm Elections,” Chevron (CVX) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

No up or down call on file

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    In “Oil Prices Drop 9% After Republicans Lose Congress in Midterm Elections,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr

    Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Oil Prices Drop 9% After Republicans Lose Congress in Midterm Elections.” Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • COP Conocophillips

    For “Oil Prices Drop 9% After Republicans Lose Congress in Midterm Elections,” Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • SHEL Shell

    In “Oil Prices Drop 9% After Republicans Lose Congress in Midterm Elections,” Shell (SHEL) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

United States Oil Fund (USO) and the energy link

On 4 Nov 2026, “Oil Prices Drop 9% After Republicans Lose Congress in Midterm Elections” is the story that connects United States Oil Fund (USO) to Energy.

What ties United States Oil Fund (USO) to the headline is this: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

Also listed, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE): Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

Dates and price levels for United States Oil Fund (USO)

USO traded between 142.51 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 158.17. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70. XOM traded between 172.72 and 188.47 across 16 sessions. The latest close on file is 177.51.

The energy score for United States Oil Fund (USO)

46 out of 100

“Oil Prices Drop 9% After Republicans Lose Congress in Midterm Elections” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 6 linked companies.