Oil Prices Rise as Iran Peace Optimism Fades
Published . Updated .
Key takeaways
- Oil prices rebounded as continuing attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz undermined optimism about a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal.
- Exposed: USO, XLE, BWET, XOM, CVX
- Market reaction: USO +2.4% on the day (still updating); XLE +1.6% on the day (still updating); BWET +4.9% on the day (still updating)
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Oil prices rebounded as continuing attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz undermined optimism about a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund-1.1% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.9% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks shipping freight. Linked by “shipping” (container shipping) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+3.3% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- OXY Occidental Petroleum+10.3% 18d
Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+4.8% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- FRO Frontline+1.0% 30d
Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike. Linked by “hormuz” in this story
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +2.78% | +4.95% | base | +2.37% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | +2.11% | -0.95% | base | +1.57% | after close | after close | after close |
| BWET | +35.67% | +29.19% | base | +4.90% | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | +3.07% | +0.89% | base | +1.25% | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | +2.73% | +0.67% | base | +0.78% | after close | after close | after close |
| OXY | +0.77% | -0.84% | base | +0.72% | after close | after close | after close |
| COP | +0.96% | +0.52% | base | +1.36% | after close | after close | after close |
| FRO | +10.52% | +3.52% | base | +4.39% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Oil Prices Rise as Iran Peace Optimism Fades Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
How United States Oil Fund (USO) moved after the last 19 energy shocks
Those 19 earlier stories put United States Oil Fund (USO) at an average move of -7.06% the next day. Largest gain -6.32%, largest drop -7.20%, from 19 prices.
| Company | When | Average | Largest gain | Largest drop | Prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | the next day | -7.06% | -6.32% | -7.20% | 19 |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days later | -5.64% | -4.86% | -9.82% | 19 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | the next day | -5.84% | -5.58% | -6.96% | 16 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days later | -8.12% | -7.07% | -8.36% | 16 |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | the next day | -21.85% | -19.70% | -22.25% | 19 |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | three days later | -30.61% | -30.61% | -30.61% | 3 |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | the next day | -5.91% | -5.72% | -6.87% | 18 |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days later | -7.50% | -7.18% | -7.56% | 18 |
- Aramco expanding East-West Pipeline that avoids Hormuz
- UNCTAD: Tanker freight rates and bunker costs surge amid Hormuz disruptions
- Hormuz crisis drives shipping costs to more than 30% of barrel value, ADNOC chief executive says
- Aramco Targets Hormuz Bypass with East-West Pipeline Expansion
- Watch US Hits Iran’s Qeshm Island as Hormuz Talks Keep Oil Markets on Edge
- Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Soaring fuel prices and the burden of inflation
How far United States Oil Fund (USO) has moved since 11 Nov 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | that day | +4.90% | still updating |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | three days earlier | +29.19% | final price |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | five days earlier | +35.67% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | that day | +1.36% | still updating |
| Conocophillips (COP) | three days earlier | +0.52% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | five days earlier | +0.96% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | that day | +0.78% | still updating |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | +0.67% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | +2.73% | final price |
| Frontline (FRO) | that day | +4.39% | still updating |
| Frontline (FRO) | three days earlier | +3.52% | final price |
| Frontline (FRO) | five days earlier | +10.52% | final price |
| Occidental Petroleum (OXY) | that day | +0.72% | still updating |
| Occidental Petroleum (OXY) | three days earlier | -0.84% | final price |
| Occidental Petroleum (OXY) | five days earlier | +0.77% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | that day | +2.37% | still updating |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | +4.95% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | +2.78% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | that day | +1.57% | still updating |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | -0.95% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | +2.11% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | that day | +1.25% | still updating |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | +0.89% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | +3.07% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 28 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 72 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 28 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 49 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 70 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 82 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 77 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 79 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 82 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
The Strait of Hormuz count beside this story
Geopolitics Alpha has 212 stories about Strait of Hormuz from the past 7 days and 695 stories from the past 30. That is about its usual pace over the past month. “Oil Prices Rise as Iran Peace Optimism Fades” is tagged to Strait of Hormuz.
United States Oil Fund (USO) on one side of this energy story
Companies that tend to gain
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence in the 11 Nov 2026 story “Oil Prices Rise as Iran Peace Optimism Fades.” Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
In “Oil Prices Rise as Iran Peace Optimism Fades,” Chevron (CVX) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- OXY Occidental Petroleum
For “Oil Prices Rise as Iran Peace Optimism Fades,” Occidental Petroleum (OXY) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
No up or down call on file
- USO United States Oil Fund
In “Oil Prices Rise as Iran Peace Optimism Fades,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 11 Nov 2026 story “Oil Prices Rise as Iran Peace Optimism Fades.” Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- BWET Amplify Commodity Trust
In “Oil Prices Rise as Iran Peace Optimism Fades,” Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story
- COP Conocophillips
In “Oil Prices Rise as Iran Peace Optimism Fades,” Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
How “Oil Prices Rise as Iran Peace Optimism Fades” reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)
The 11 Nov 2026 story “Oil Prices Rise as Iran Peace Optimism Fades” names United States Oil Fund (USO) because of Strait of Hormuz.
United States Oil Fund (USO) is on the page because United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
A second company, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE), is listed for a different reason: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Dates in the story, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) price range
BWET traded between 788.51 and 1047.07 across 17 sessions. The latest close on file is 907.20. USO traded between 143.02 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 148.41. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70.
How solid “Oil Prices Rise as Iran Peace Optimism Fades” looks
46 out of 100Price not final
“Oil Prices Rise as Iran Peace Optimism Fades” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.