Oil Update - October 2026
Published . Updated .
Absent kinetic conflict or a resolution to open the Strait of Hormuz, I expect WTI oil prices to range between $97.50 and $112.50 per barrel for October. Read more here...
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+13.9% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+12.1% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “hormuz” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF-3.0% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “hormuz” (defense) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+13.4% 16d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+15.7% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+8.3% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- SHEL Shell+0.1% 13d
Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | -1.54% | -1.29% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | -0.51% | -2.20% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BWETNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ITANo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XOM | -1.45% | -2.77% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | -1.54% | -2.69% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| COP | -1.71% | -3.24% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SHELNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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Oil Update - October 2026 Seeking Alpha
Source: Seeking Alpha
How United States Oil Fund (USO) moved after the last 18 energy shocks
In the last 18 similar stories, United States Oil Fund (USO) moved an average of -3.69% the next day. The best was -3.69% and the worst was -3.69%, from 18 prices.
| Company | When | Average | Largest gain | Largest drop | Prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | the next day | -3.69% | -3.69% | -3.69% | 18 |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days later | -1.37% | -1.37% | -1.37% | 18 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | the next day | -1.51% | -1.51% | -1.51% | 18 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days later | -0.87% | -0.87% | -0.87% | 18 |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | the next day | -1.64% | -1.64% | -1.64% | 18 |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days later | -0.44% | -0.44% | -0.44% | 18 |
| Chevron (CVX) | the next day | -2.02% | -2.02% | -2.02% | 5 |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days later | -0.77% | -0.77% | -0.77% | 4 |
- Two 'unauthorised' oil tankers struck in Strait of Hormuz, Iran says
- UAE Reports Oil Spill Reaching Umm Al Quwain Beaches After Tanker Attack Near Strait of Hormuz
- Iran escalates Strait of Hormuz shipping attacks with new tactics aimed at keeping global oil prices high before US midterm elections
- Two supertankers hit mines near Strait of Hormuz: IRGC
- Iran reports tanker blasts in Hormuz as Trump hints at renewed strikes
- Iran threatens tankers in Hormuz with destruction as oil and stocks swing wildly
United States Oil Fund (USO) since “Oil Update - October 2026,” compared with the market
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conocophillips (COP) | three days earlier | -3.24% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | five days earlier | -1.71% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | -2.69% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | -1.54% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | -1.29% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | -1.54% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | -2.20% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | -0.51% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | -2.77% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | -1.45% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 19 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 19 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 40 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 61 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 68 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 70 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 73 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Strait of Hormuz, seven days against thirty
Geopolitics Alpha has 177 stories about Strait of Hormuz from the past 7 days and 468 stories from the past 30. That is faster than its usual pace over the past month. “Oil Update - October 2026” is tagged to Strait of Hormuz.
Who collects and who pays in energy
Companies mentioned with this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
In “Oil Update - October 2026,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
In “Oil Update - October 2026,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
In “Oil Update - October 2026,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
In “Oil Update - October 2026,” Chevron (CVX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- COP Conocophillips
Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 2 Nov 2026 story “Oil Update - October 2026.” Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- SHEL Shell
For “Oil Update - October 2026,” Shell (SHEL) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
What Strait of Hormuz means for United States Oil Fund (USO)
“Oil Update - October 2026” (2 Nov 2026) reaches United States Oil Fund (USO) through Strait of Hormuz.
United States Oil Fund (USO) is on the page because United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Also listed, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE): Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
The price range for United States Oil Fund (USO), and the dates in the story
USO traded between 141.82 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 168.83. XLE traded between 62.06 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 70.00. XOM traded between 172.72 and 188.47 across 14 sessions. The latest close on file is 187.27.
How solid the energy case looks
46 out of 100
“Oil Update - October 2026” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 6 linked companies.