San Francisco Fed Warns: Exceptionally Strong El Niño Could Push Up US Inflation, Potentially Adding 1 Percentage Point by 2027
Published . Updated .
New research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco shows that the current "very strong" El Niño may have already pushed the US PCE price…
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF-0.5% 30d
iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- XLP Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR-4.0% 16d
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.8% 30d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- BAC Bank of America-11.1% 30d
Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase-4.3% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- WMT Walmart+14.9% 30d
Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- COST Costco Wholesale+12.7% 30d
Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- PG The Procter & Gamble+10.6% 30d
The Procter & Gamble (soap, detergents, cleang preparations, perfumes, cosmetics): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIP | -0.37% | -0.40% | base | -0.29% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLPNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| TLT | -0.20% | -1.03% | base | -0.15% | after close | after close | after close |
| BAC | +1.08% | +1.74% | base | -0.89% | after close | after close | after close |
| JPM | -0.92% | +0.67% | base | +1.05% | after close | after close | after close |
| WMTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| COST | -0.73% | -2.96% | base | +2.78% | after close | after close | after close |
| PGNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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San Francisco Fed Warns: Exceptionally Strong El Niño Could Push Up US Inflation, Potentially Adding 1 Percentage Point by 2027 BigGo Finance
Source: BigGo Finance
Ishares Tr (TLT) since this story, compared with the market
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Of America (BAC) | that day | -0.89% | final price |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | three days earlier | +1.74% | final price |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | five days earlier | +1.08% | final price |
| Costco Wholesale (COST) | that day | +2.78% | final price |
| Costco Wholesale (COST) | three days earlier | -2.96% | final price |
| Costco Wholesale (COST) | five days earlier | -0.73% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | that day | +1.05% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | three days earlier | +0.67% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | five days earlier | -0.92% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | that day | -0.29% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | three days earlier | -0.40% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | five days earlier | -0.37% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | that day | -0.15% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | three days earlier | -1.03% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | five days earlier | -0.20% | final price |
Congressional trades in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 54 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Laurel Lee sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 70 days before publication. Filed 16 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 59 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 59 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 67 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 31 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Jonathan Jackson sold Walmart (WMT) (jointly held), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 35 days before publication. Filed 19 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 38 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Costco Wholesale (COST), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 13 Oct 2026. That is 20 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Costco Wholesale (COST) (held by a spouse), worth $250,001 - $500,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 31 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Costco Wholesale (COST) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 38 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. David J. Taylor sold Procter & Gamble (PG), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 12 Oct 2026. That is 21 days before publication. Filed 15 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Ishares Tr (TLT)
Companies carried with this story
- TLT Ishares Tr
In “San Francisco Fed Warns: Exceptionally Strong El Niño Could Push Up US Inflation, Potentially Adding 1 Percentage Point by 2027,” Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- IEF Ishares Tr
For “San Francisco Fed Warns: Exceptionally Strong El Niño Could Push Up US Inflation, Potentially Adding 1 Percentage Point by 2027,” Ishares Tr (IEF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- TIP Ishares Tr
Ishares Tr (TIP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 2 Nov 2026 story “San Francisco Fed Warns: Exceptionally Strong El Niño Could Push Up US Inflation, Potentially Adding 1 Percentage Point by 2027.” Reason on file: iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- WMT Walmart
For “San Francisco Fed Warns: Exceptionally Strong El Niño Could Push Up US Inflation, Potentially Adding 1 Percentage Point by 2027,” Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase
For “San Francisco Fed Warns: Exceptionally Strong El Niño Could Push Up US Inflation, Potentially Adding 1 Percentage Point by 2027,” Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- COST Costco Wholesale
In “San Francisco Fed Warns: Exceptionally Strong El Niño Could Push Up US Inflation, Potentially Adding 1 Percentage Point by 2027,” Costco Wholesale (COST) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- BAC Bank Of America
In “San Francisco Fed Warns: Exceptionally Strong El Niño Could Push Up US Inflation, Potentially Adding 1 Percentage Point by 2027,” Bank Of America (BAC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- PG Procter & Gamble
In “San Francisco Fed Warns: Exceptionally Strong El Niño Could Push Up US Inflation, Potentially Adding 1 Percentage Point by 2027,” Procter & Gamble (PG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: The Procter & Gamble (soap, detergents, cleang preparations, perfumes, cosmetics): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
Ishares Tr (TLT)
“San Francisco Fed Warns: Exceptionally Strong El Niño Could Push Up US Inflation, Potentially Adding 1 Percentage Point by 2027” (2 Nov 2026) reaches Ishares Tr (TLT) through this story.
The link for Ishares Tr (TLT) is this: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
A second company, Ishares Tr (IEF), is listed for a different reason: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
Price levels for Ishares Tr (TLT)
IEF traded between 88.64 and 91.23 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 90.08. TIP traded between 103.77 and 105.67 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 105.27. TLT traded between 76.44 and 81.94 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 79.46.
How strong the case is around Ishares Tr (TLT)
46 out of 100
“San Francisco Fed Warns: Exceptionally Strong El Niño Could Push Up US Inflation, Potentially Adding 1 Percentage Point by 2027” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.