The US-China trade war seems to have subsided – but the sense of calm is misleading
Published . Updated .
A truce has cooled the trade conflict, but neither country has done anything to limit the outbreak of new hostilities
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR-1.5% 30d
Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tradewar” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF
SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tradewar” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- KWEB KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF-4.6% 30d
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF: it holds Chinese internet companies. Linked by “china” (Chinese tech) in this story.
- SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF-12.3% 30d
VanEck Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “china” (semiconductors) in this story.
- FXI iShares China Large-Cap ETF-5.0% 30d
iShares China Large-Cap ETF holds stocks listed in China, which this story is about (“china”).
- CAT Caterpillar-23.7% 30d
Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tradewar” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- DE Deere-0.9% 30d
Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tradewar” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- NKE Nike+7.1% 30d
Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tradewar” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLINo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XRTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| KWEBNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SMHNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| FXINo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CATNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DENo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| NKE | -2.04% | -3.94% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
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A truce has cooled the trade conflict, but neither country has done anything to limit the outbreak of new hostilities Donald Trump ’s trade wars have largely fallen off the headlines. Fears of new tariffs flare up from time to time when th…
Source: The Guardian
Price since this story was published: Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| NKE | three days earlier | -3.94% | final price |
| NKE | five days earlier | -2.04% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Lisa McClain bought Caterpillar (CAT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 34 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 28 Aug 2026. That is 65 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros sold Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 66 days before publication. Filed 10 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Nike (NKE), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 72 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Companies in defense around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
Companies tied to this story
- XLI Select Sector Spdr Tr
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “The US-China trade war seems to have subsided – but the sense of calm is misleading.” Reason on file: Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tradewar” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- XRT Spdr Series Trust
In “The US-China trade war seems to have subsided – but the sense of calm is misleading,” Spdr Series Trust (XRT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tradewar” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- TLT Ishares Tr
Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “The US-China trade war seems to have subsided – but the sense of calm is misleading.” Reason on file: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “federal reserve” (US interest rates) in this story
- QQQ Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1
For “The US-China trade war seems to have subsided – but the sense of calm is misleading,” Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Invesco QQQ: it holds the big tech and AI names. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story
- FXI Ishares China Large-Cap Etf
In “The US-China trade war seems to have subsided – but the sense of calm is misleading,” Ishares China Large-Cap Etf (FXI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares China Large-Cap ETF holds stocks listed in China, which this story is about (“china”)
- CEW Wisdomtree Tr
Wisdomtree Tr (CEW) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “The US-China trade war seems to have subsided – but the sense of calm is misleading.” Reason on file: WisdomTree Emerging Currency Strategy Fund holds emerging-market currencies, which move on news like this from China
- EMB Ishares Tr
In “The US-China trade war seems to have subsided – but the sense of calm is misleading,” Ishares Tr (EMB) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF holds emerging-market government bonds, which react to inflation and interest-rate news like this one in China
- EMLC Vaneck J. P. Morgan Em Local Currency Bond Etf
Vaneck J. P. Morgan Em Local Currency Bond Etf (EMLC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “The US-China trade war seems to have subsided – but the sense of calm is misleading.” Reason on file: VanEck J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF holds emerging-market bonds in local currencies, which move with rate and currency news like this from China
How defense news reaches Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
On 1 Nov 2026, “The US-China trade war seems to have subsided – but the sense of calm is misleading” is the story that connects Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) to Defense.
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is on the page because Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tradewar” (tariffs and trade) in this story
Also listed, Spdr Series Trust (XRT): SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tradewar” (tariffs and trade) in this story
The price range for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI), and the dates in the story
TLT traded between 76.44 and 81.94 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 79.46. XLI traded between 163.00 and 172.33 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 167.42.
How solid the defense case looks
46 out of 100
“The US-China trade war seems to have subsided – but the sense of calm is misleading” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.