This signal from the corporate bond market has historically preceded big drawdowns for the S&P 500
Published . Updated .
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The corporate bond market has been flashing a signal that historically precedes bad news for the stock market.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.6% 30d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “bond market” (US interest rates) in this story.
- IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF-0.8% 30d
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “bond market” (US interest rates) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase-4.3% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “bond market” (US interest rates) in this story.
- BAC Bank of America-11.1% 30d
Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “bond market” (US interest rates) in this story.
- DHI D.R. Horton+4.1% 30d
D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “bond market” (US interest rates) in this story.
- SCHW The Charles Schwab
The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “bond market” (US interest rates) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | -0.10% | -0.30% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| IEF | -0.44% | -0.28% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| JPM | -1.44% | +0.85% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BAC | +2.23% | +3.18% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| DHI | -3.87% | -4.22% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SCHW | +0.63% | +0.83% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
The corporate bond market has been flashing a signal that historically precedes bad news for the stock market.
Source: MarketWatch
Ishares Tr (TLT) since this story, compared with the market
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Of America (BAC) | three days earlier | +3.18% | final price |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | five days earlier | +2.23% | final price |
| Horton D R (DHI) | three days earlier | -4.22% | final price |
| Horton D R (DHI) | five days earlier | -3.87% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | three days earlier | -0.28% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | five days earlier | -0.44% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | three days earlier | +0.85% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | five days earlier | -1.44% | final price |
| Schwab Charles (SCHW) | three days earlier | +0.83% | final price |
| Schwab Charles (SCHW) | five days earlier | +0.63% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | three days earlier | -0.30% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | five days earlier | -0.10% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Sen. John Boozman bought Ishares Tr (IEF) (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 55 days before publication. Filed 21 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 60 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 60 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 68 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 55 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Laurel Lee sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 71 days before publication. Filed 16 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Horton D R (DHI), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Aug 2026. That is 78 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Ishares Tr (TLT)
Companies carried with this story
- TLT Ishares Tr
For “This signal from the corporate bond market has historically preceded big drawdowns for the S&P 500,” Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “bond market” (US interest rates) in this story
- IEF Ishares Tr
For “This signal from the corporate bond market has historically preceded big drawdowns for the S&P 500,” Ishares Tr (IEF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “bond market” (US interest rates) in this story
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase
In “This signal from the corporate bond market has historically preceded big drawdowns for the S&P 500,” Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “bond market” (US interest rates) in this story
- BAC Bank Of America
In “This signal from the corporate bond market has historically preceded big drawdowns for the S&P 500,” Bank Of America (BAC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “bond market” (US interest rates) in this story
- DHI Horton D R
In “This signal from the corporate bond market has historically preceded big drawdowns for the S&P 500,” Horton D R (DHI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “bond market” (US interest rates) in this story
- SCHW Schwab Charles
Schwab Charles (SCHW) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 3 Nov 2026 story “This signal from the corporate bond market has historically preceded big drawdowns for the S&P 500.” Reason on file: The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “bond market” (US interest rates) in this story
Ishares Tr (TLT)
The 3 Nov 2026 story “This signal from the corporate bond market has historically preceded big drawdowns for the S&P 500” names Ishares Tr (TLT) because of this story.
For Ishares Tr (TLT), the reason on file says iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “bond market” (US interest rates) in this story
Also listed, Ishares Tr (IEF): iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “bond market” (US interest rates) in this story
Dates and price levels for Ishares Tr (TLT)
IEF traded between 88.64 and 91.23 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 90.08. JPM traded between 325.12 and 345.73 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 337.10. TLT traded between 76.44 and 81.94 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 79.46.
What the saved facts support for Ishares Tr (TLT)
46 out of 100
“This signal from the corporate bond market has historically preceded big drawdowns for the S&P 500” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 6 linked companies.