Geopolitics Alpha

Ukrainian Strikes Disrupt 30% of Russia's Oil Refining Capacity

Published . Updated .

Key takeaways

  • Ukrainian drone strikes have disrupted refineries representing roughly 30% of Russia's total oil-processing capacity since late October
  • Exposed: USO, XLE, CRAK, UNG, XOM
  • Market reaction: USO −0.9% on the day (still updating); XLE +0.4% on the day (still updating); UNG +2.3% on the day (still updating)

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Ukrainian Strikes Disrupt 30% of Russia's Oil Refining Capacity

Ukrainian drone strikes have disrupted refineries representing roughly 30% of Russia's total oil-processing capacity since late October

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • USO United States Oil Fund-1.1% 30d

    United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.9% 30d

    Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • CRAK VanEck Oil Refiners ETF

    VanEck Oil Refiners ETF: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story.

  • UNG United States Natural Gas Fund-13.5% 30d

    United States Natural Gas Fund: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “russia” (natural gas) in this story.

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d

    ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • CVX Chevron+3.1% 30d

    Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • VLO Valero Energy-11.1% 30d

    Valero Energy (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story.

  • MPC Marathon Petroleum-0.9% 15d

    Marathon Petroleum (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
USO+10.89%+3.88%base-0.95%after closeafter closeafter close
XLE+7.65%-0.44%base+0.37%after closeafter closeafter close
CRAK+7.09%+0.18%base-0.69%after closeafter closeafter close
UNG-9.43%-8.04%base+2.28%after closeafter closeafter close
XOM+7.73%+0.33%base-0.21%after closeafter closeafter close
CVX+6.86%+1.02%base-0.11%after closeafter closeafter close
VLO+8.60%-1.57%base-1.89%after closeafter closeafter close
MPC+9.74%-3.17%base-0.01%after closeafter closeafter close

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

Ukrainian Strikes Disrupt 30% of Russia's Oil Refining Capacity Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com

Source: Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com

The price since 10 Nov 2026: United States Oil Fund (USO) versus the S&P 500

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK)that day-0.69%still updating
Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK)three days earlier+0.18%final price
Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK)five days earlier+7.09%final price
Chevron (CVX)that day-0.11%still updating
Chevron (CVX)three days earlier+1.02%final price
Chevron (CVX)five days earlier+6.86%final price
Marathon Petroleum (MPC)that day-0.01%still updating
Marathon Petroleum (MPC)three days earlier-3.17%final price
Marathon Petroleum (MPC)five days earlier+9.74%final price
United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)that day+2.28%still updating
United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)three days earlier-8.04%final price
United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)five days earlier-9.43%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)that day-0.95%still updating
United States Oil Fund (USO)three days earlier+3.88%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)five days earlier+10.89%final price
Valero Energy (VLO)that day-1.89%still updating
Valero Energy (VLO)three days earlier-1.57%final price
Valero Energy (VLO)five days earlier+8.60%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)that day+0.37%still updating
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)three days earlier-0.44%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)five days earlier+7.65%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)that day-0.21%still updating
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)three days earlier+0.33%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)five days earlier+7.73%final price

Congressional trades in the stocks in this story

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

United States Oil Fund (USO) on one side of this energy story

Companies carried with this story

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    In “Ukrainian Strikes Disrupt 30% of Russia's Oil Refining Capacity,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr

    Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 10 Nov 2026 story “Ukrainian Strikes Disrupt 30% of Russia's Oil Refining Capacity.” Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • CRAK Vaneck Etf Trust

    In “Ukrainian Strikes Disrupt 30% of Russia's Oil Refining Capacity,” Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: VanEck Oil Refiners ETF: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story

  • UNG United States Natural Gas Fund

    For “Ukrainian Strikes Disrupt 30% of Russia's Oil Refining Capacity,” United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Natural Gas Fund: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “russia” (natural gas) in this story

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings

    ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 10 Nov 2026 story “Ukrainian Strikes Disrupt 30% of Russia's Oil Refining Capacity.” Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • CVX Chevron

    For “Ukrainian Strikes Disrupt 30% of Russia's Oil Refining Capacity,” Chevron (CVX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • VLO Valero Energy

    In “Ukrainian Strikes Disrupt 30% of Russia's Oil Refining Capacity,” Valero Energy (VLO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Valero Energy (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story

  • MPC Marathon Petroleum

    For “Ukrainian Strikes Disrupt 30% of Russia's Oil Refining Capacity,” Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Marathon Petroleum (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story

United States Oil Fund (USO) and the energy link

On 10 Nov 2026, “Ukrainian Strikes Disrupt 30% of Russia's Oil Refining Capacity” is the story that connects United States Oil Fund (USO) to Energy.

For United States Oil Fund (USO), the reason on file says United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

Also listed, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE): Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

Dates in the story, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) price range

USO traded between 143.02 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 148.41. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70.

How strong the case is around United States Oil Fund (USO)

46 out of 100Price not final

“Ukrainian Strikes Disrupt 30% of Russia's Oil Refining Capacity” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.