The Truth Behind Iraq's Oil Rebound And The Secret Red Sea Plan
Published . Updated .
Key takeaways
- Iraq is relying on costly and vulnerable export workarounds, including trucking, northern pipelines and ship-to-ship transfers to bypass disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Exposed: USO, XLE, BWET, XOM, CVX
- Market reaction: USO −0.9% on the day (still updating); XLE +0.4% on the day (still updating); BWET −10.4% on the day (still updating)
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Iraq is relying on costly and vulnerable export workarounds, including trucking, northern pipelines and ship-to-ship transfers to bypass disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund-1.1% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.9% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks shipping freight. Linked by “red sea” (container shipping) in this story.
- AMLP Alerian MLP ETF-1.7% 30d
Alerian MLP ETF: it holds pipeline operators. Linked by “pipeline” (pipelines) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- ZIM ZIM Integrated Shipping Services-2.6% 30d
ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): shipping lines' rates jump when routes or ports are disrupted. Linked by “red sea” (container shipping) in this story.
- MATX Matson-5.5% 10d
Matson (water transportation): shipping lines' rates jump when routes or ports are disrupted. Linked by “red sea” (container shipping) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+3.1% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +10.89% | +3.88% | base | -0.95% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | +7.65% | -0.44% | base | +0.37% | after close | after close | after close |
| BWET | +44.12% | +15.72% | base | -10.42% | after close | after close | after close |
| AMLPPrices arriving within minutes | — | — | — | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | +7.73% | +0.33% | base | -0.21% | after close | after close | after close |
| ZIM | +2.88% | -3.65% | base | -1.63% | after close | after close | after close |
| MATXPrices arriving within minutes | — | — | — | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | +6.86% | +1.02% | base | -0.11% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
The Truth Behind Iraq's Oil Rebound And The Secret Red Sea Plan Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
What happened to United States Oil Fund (USO) the last 4 times Red Sea was in the news
Across 4 earlier stories, United States Oil Fund (USO) the next day averaged -5.47%. The largest gain was -3.74% and the largest drop was -7.20%, from 4 prices.
| Company | When | Average | Largest gain | Largest drop | Prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | the next day | -5.47% | -3.74% | -7.20% | 4 |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days later | -4.86% | -4.86% | -4.86% | 2 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | the next day | -3.56% | +0.48% | -5.58% | 3 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days later | -8.36% | -8.36% | -8.36% | 2 |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | the next day | -17.92% | -13.59% | -22.25% | 4 |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | the next day | -5.72% | -5.72% | -5.72% | 2 |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days later | -7.56% | -7.56% | -7.56% | 2 |
How far United States Oil Fund (USO) has moved since 10 Nov 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | that day | -10.42% | still updating |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | three days earlier | +15.72% | final price |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | five days earlier | +44.12% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | that day | -0.11% | still updating |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | +1.02% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | +6.86% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | that day | -0.95% | still updating |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | +3.88% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | +10.89% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | that day | +0.37% | still updating |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | -0.44% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | +7.65% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | that day | -0.21% | still updating |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | +0.33% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | +7.73% | final price |
| ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM) | that day | -1.63% | still updating |
| ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM) | three days earlier | -3.65% | final price |
| ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM) | five days earlier | +2.88% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 27 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 71 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 27 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 48 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 76 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 78 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 81 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
The Red Sea count beside this story
Geopolitics Alpha has 38 stories about Red Sea from the past 7 days and 251 stories from the past 30. That is slower than its usual pace over the past month. “The Truth Behind Iraq's Oil Rebound And The Secret Red Sea Plan” is tagged to Red Sea.
Who gains and who pays if Red Sea stays in the story
Companies carried with this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 10 Nov 2026 story “The Truth Behind Iraq's Oil Rebound And The Secret Red Sea Plan.” Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 10 Nov 2026 story “The Truth Behind Iraq's Oil Rebound And The Secret Red Sea Plan.” Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- BWET Amplify Commodity Trust
For “The Truth Behind Iraq's Oil Rebound And The Secret Red Sea Plan,” Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks shipping freight. Linked by “red sea” (container shipping) in this story
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 10 Nov 2026 story “The Truth Behind Iraq's Oil Rebound And The Secret Red Sea Plan.” Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
In “The Truth Behind Iraq's Oil Rebound And The Secret Red Sea Plan,” Chevron (CVX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- ZIM ZIM Integrated Shipping Services
For “The Truth Behind Iraq's Oil Rebound And The Secret Red Sea Plan,” ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): shipping lines' rates jump when routes or ports are disrupted. Linked by “red sea” (container shipping) in this story
- COP Conocophillips
In “The Truth Behind Iraq's Oil Rebound And The Secret Red Sea Plan,” Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- SHEL Shell
In “The Truth Behind Iraq's Oil Rebound And The Secret Red Sea Plan,” Shell (SHEL) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
What Red Sea means for United States Oil Fund (USO)
The 10 Nov 2026 story “The Truth Behind Iraq's Oil Rebound And The Secret Red Sea Plan” names United States Oil Fund (USO) because of Red Sea.
United States Oil Fund (USO) is on the page because United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Also listed, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE): Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Dates and price levels for United States Oil Fund (USO)
BWET traded between 788.51 and 1047.07 across 17 sessions. The latest close on file is 907.20. USO traded between 143.02 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 148.41. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70.
A simple score for United States Oil Fund (USO)
46 out of 100Price not final
“The Truth Behind Iraq's Oil Rebound And The Secret Red Sea Plan” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.