US Q3 GDP Growth Expected at 3.2% as AI Investment Offsets Oil Price Drag - News and Statistics
Published . Updated .
US third-quarter GDP is expected to rise 3.2% on AI-related investment and steady consumer spending, offsetting a trade deficit drag and higher oil prices ahead of the midterm elections.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+7.3% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.2% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- QQQ Invesco QQQ+2.3% 19d
Invesco QQQ: it holds the big tech and AI names. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story.
- XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF
SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds retailers. Linked by “consumer” (retail and consumer goods) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+10.3% 14d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+8.4% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+8.0% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- SHEL Shell+0.1% 13d
Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | -2.52% | -0.26% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | -1.29% | +1.72% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| QQQNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XRTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XOM | -2.14% | +1.35% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | -1.18% | +1.19% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| COP | -2.27% | +1.58% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SHELNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
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US Q3 GDP Growth Expected at 3.2% as AI Investment Offsets Oil Price Drag - News and Statistics IndexBox
Source: IndexBox
How far United States Oil Fund (USO) has moved since 29 Oct 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conocophillips (COP) | three days earlier | +1.58% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | five days earlier | -2.27% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | +1.19% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | -1.18% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | -0.26% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | -2.52% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | +1.72% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | -1.29% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | +1.35% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | -2.14% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 59 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $250,001 - $500,000 on 31 Jul 2026. That is 90 days before publication. Filed 22 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 36 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 57 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 64 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 64 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 66 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Lisa McClain bought Microsoft (MSFT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 30 Sep 2026. That is 29 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael Rulli sold Microsoft (MSFT), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 31 days before publication. Filed 2 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar sold Microsoft (MSFT), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Sep 2026. That is 35 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
United States Oil Fund (USO) on one side of this energy story
Likely winners
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
For “US Q3 GDP Growth Expected at 3.2% as AI Investment Offsets Oil Price Drag - News and Statistics,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
Chevron (CVX) tends to benefit, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “US Q3 GDP Growth Expected at 3.2% as AI Investment Offsets Oil Price Drag - News and Statistics.” Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
No up or down call on file
- USO United States Oil Fund
For “US Q3 GDP Growth Expected at 3.2% as AI Investment Offsets Oil Price Drag - News and Statistics,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “US Q3 GDP Growth Expected at 3.2% as AI Investment Offsets Oil Price Drag - News and Statistics.” Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- QQQ Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1
For “US Q3 GDP Growth Expected at 3.2% as AI Investment Offsets Oil Price Drag - News and Statistics,” Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Invesco QQQ: it holds the big tech and AI names. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story
- COP Conocophillips
Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “US Q3 GDP Growth Expected at 3.2% as AI Investment Offsets Oil Price Drag - News and Statistics.” Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
How energy news reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)
The 29 Oct 2026 story “US Q3 GDP Growth Expected at 3.2% as AI Investment Offsets Oil Price Drag - News and Statistics” names United States Oil Fund (USO) because of Energy.
For United States Oil Fund (USO), the reason on file says United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Also listed, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE): Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Price levels for United States Oil Fund (USO)
QQQ traded between 701.18 and 762.84 across 18 sessions. The latest close on file is 725.59. USO traded between 141.82 and 169.96 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 166.69. XLE traded between 61.05 and 69.86 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 68.46.
The energy score for United States Oil Fund (USO)
46 out of 100
“US Q3 GDP Growth Expected at 3.2% as AI Investment Offsets Oil Price Drag - News and Statistics” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.