Wall Street is bracing for a fresh wave of tariffs, Iran action (and potentially a government shutdown) after the midterms
Published . Updated .
Key takeaways
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This report is about tariffs and trade.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR-0.3% 30d
Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF
SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- CAT Caterpillar-24.1% 30d
Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- DE Deere-2.4% 30d
Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- WMT Walmart+16.0% 30d
Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- NKE Nike+8.4% 30d
Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLI | -1.06% | +0.22% | base | +1.08% | after close | after close | after close |
| XRT | -3.55% | -1.68% | base | -1.16% | after close | after close | after close |
| CAT | +16.30% | +5.44% | base | +1.14% | after close | after close | after close |
| DE | -4.18% | -1.10% | base | -0.35% | after close | after close | after close |
| WMT | -6.59% | -5.06% | base | -2.03% | after close | after close | after close |
| NKE | -4.04% | -1.81% | base | -2.54% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Wall Street is bracing for a fresh wave of tariffs, Iran action (and potentially a government shutdown) after the midterms Fortune
Source: Fortune
How far Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) has moved since 3 Nov 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar (CAT) | that day | +1.14% | still updating |
| Caterpillar (CAT) | three days earlier | +5.44% | final price |
| Caterpillar (CAT) | five days earlier | +16.30% | final price |
| Deere (DE) | that day | -0.35% | still updating |
| Deere (DE) | three days earlier | -1.10% | final price |
| Deere (DE) | five days earlier | -4.18% | final price |
| Nike (NKE) | that day | -2.54% | still updating |
| Nike (NKE) | three days earlier | -1.81% | final price |
| Nike (NKE) | five days earlier | -4.04% | final price |
| Walmart (WMT) | that day | -2.03% | still updating |
| Walmart (WMT) | three days earlier | -5.06% | final price |
| Walmart (WMT) | five days earlier | -6.59% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) | that day | +1.08% | still updating |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) | three days earlier | +0.22% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) | five days earlier | -1.06% | final price |
| Spdr Series Trust (XRT) | that day | -1.16% | still updating |
| Spdr Series Trust (XRT) | three days earlier | -1.68% | final price |
| Spdr Series Trust (XRT) | five days earlier | -3.55% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Lisa McClain bought Caterpillar (CAT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 36 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 32 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Jonathan Jackson sold Walmart (WMT) (jointly held), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 36 days before publication. Filed 19 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 39 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 28 Aug 2026. That is 67 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros sold Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 68 days before publication. Filed 10 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Nike (NKE), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 74 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
Companies mentioned with this story
- XLI Select Sector Spdr Tr
For “Wall Street is bracing for a fresh wave of tariffs, Iran action (and potentially a government shutdown) after the midterms,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- XRT Spdr Series Trust
In “Wall Street is bracing for a fresh wave of tariffs, Iran action (and potentially a government shutdown) after the midterms,” Spdr Series Trust (XRT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- CAT Caterpillar
For “Wall Street is bracing for a fresh wave of tariffs, Iran action (and potentially a government shutdown) after the midterms,” Caterpillar (CAT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- DE Deere
Deere (DE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 3 Nov 2026 story “Wall Street is bracing for a fresh wave of tariffs, Iran action (and potentially a government shutdown) after the midterms.” Reason on file: Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- WMT Walmart
For “Wall Street is bracing for a fresh wave of tariffs, Iran action (and potentially a government shutdown) after the midterms,” Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- NKE Nike
Nike (NKE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 3 Nov 2026 story “Wall Street is bracing for a fresh wave of tariffs, Iran action (and potentially a government shutdown) after the midterms.” Reason on file: Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
“Wall Street is bracing for a fresh wave of tariffs, Iran action (and potentially a government shutdown) after the midterms” (3 Nov 2026) reaches Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) through this story.
What ties Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) to the headline is this: Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
Also listed, Spdr Series Trust (XRT): SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
Dates in the story, and the Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) price range
CAT traded between 609.97 and 876.39 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 613.64. XLI traded between 163.00 and 172.33 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 169.73.
A simple score for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
46 out of 100Price not final
“Wall Street is bracing for a fresh wave of tariffs, Iran action (and potentially a government shutdown) after the midterms” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 6 linked companies. The price is not final yet.