War, oil, AI: What US midterms could mean for Middle East economies
Published . Updated .
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This report is about oil and defense. Names like XOM and CVX typically gain because exxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+8.9% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+8.9% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF+0.3% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.
- QQQ Invesco QQQ-3.3% 30d
Invesco QQQ: it holds the big tech and AI names. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+6.2% 16d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+12.5% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+4.8% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- SHEL Shell-2.5% 12d
Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +4.37% | +7.30% | base | +0.42% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | +1.44% | +2.16% | base | -0.59% | after close | after close | after close |
| ITA | -3.96% | -0.11% | base | +1.08% | after close | after close | after close |
| QQQ | +5.87% | +5.02% | base | +0.70% | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | +0.06% | +1.89% | base | -1.20% | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | +0.19% | +1.58% | base | -1.01% | after close | after close | after close |
| COP | +0.74% | +2.12% | base | -2.02% | after close | after close | after close |
| SHEL | -0.17% | +2.59% | base | -0.90% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
War, oil, AI: What US midterms could mean for Middle East economies Al-Monitor
Source: Al-Monitor
The price since 3 Nov 2026: United States Oil Fund (USO) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conocophillips (COP) | that day | -2.02% | still updating |
| Conocophillips (COP) | three days earlier | +2.12% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | five days earlier | +0.74% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | that day | -1.01% | still updating |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | +1.58% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | +0.19% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | that day | +1.08% | still updating |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | three days earlier | -0.11% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | five days earlier | -3.96% | final price |
| Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) | that day | +0.70% | still updating |
| Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) | three days earlier | +5.02% | final price |
| Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) | five days earlier | +5.87% | final price |
| Shell (SHEL) | that day | -0.90% | still updating |
| Shell (SHEL) | three days earlier | +2.59% | final price |
| Shell (SHEL) | five days earlier | -0.17% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | that day | +0.42% | still updating |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | +7.30% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | +4.37% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | that day | -0.59% | still updating |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | +2.16% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | +1.44% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | that day | -1.20% | still updating |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | +1.89% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | +0.06% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 20 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 64 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 20 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 41 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 62 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 71 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 74 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Middle East, seven days against thirty
Geopolitics Alpha has 0 stories about Middle East from the past 7 days and 0 stories from the past 30. “War, oil, AI: What US midterms could mean for Middle East economies” is tagged to Middle East.
Who gains and who loses around United States Oil Fund (USO)
Likely winners
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence in the 3 Nov 2026 story “War, oil, AI: What US midterms could mean for Middle East economies.” Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
In “War, oil, AI: What US midterms could mean for Middle East economies,” Chevron (CVX) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
No up or down call on file
- USO United States Oil Fund
In “War, oil, AI: What US midterms could mean for Middle East economies,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
In “War, oil, AI: What US midterms could mean for Middle East economies,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
For “War, oil, AI: What US midterms could mean for Middle East economies,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story
- QQQ Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1
Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 3 Nov 2026 story “War, oil, AI: What US midterms could mean for Middle East economies.” Reason on file: Invesco QQQ: it holds the big tech and AI names. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story
United States Oil Fund (USO) and the energy link
“War, oil, AI: What US midterms could mean for Middle East economies” (3 Nov 2026) reaches United States Oil Fund (USO) through Middle East.
What ties United States Oil Fund (USO) to the headline is this: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is here too. Its reason reads: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Price levels for United States Oil Fund (USO)
ITA traded between 197.59 and 215.76 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 214.70. USO traded between 141.82 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 156.89. XLE traded between 62.95 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 67.26.
How solid the energy case looks
46 out of 100Price not final
“War, oil, AI: What US midterms could mean for Middle East economies” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.