Warsh’s AI Optimism May Box Him In at the Fed
Published . Updated .
This report is about US interest rates and AI and big tech.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.8% 30d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF-0.9% 30d
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- QQQ Invesco QQQ+1.7% 18d
Invesco QQQ: it holds the big tech and AI names. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase-3.8% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- BAC Bank of America-12.5% 30d
Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- DHI D.R. Horton+5.5% 30d
D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- SCHW The Charles Schwab
The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- MSFT Microsoft+8.4% 30d
Microsoft (prepackaged software): big tech's AI spending and demand drive its shares. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | +0.89% | +0.83% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| IEF | +0.39% | +0.29% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| QQQ | -2.90% | -1.86% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| JPM | -0.85% | -1.58% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BAC | +0.41% | -0.65% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| DHI | +3.31% | +2.51% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SCHW | +3.02% | +1.10% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| MSFT | -2.00% | +0.06% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
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Warsh’s AI Optimism May Box Him In at the Fed Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
How far Ishares Tr (TLT) has moved since 29 Oct 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Of America (BAC) | three days earlier | -0.65% | final price |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | five days earlier | +0.41% | final price |
| Horton D R (DHI) | three days earlier | +2.51% | final price |
| Horton D R (DHI) | five days earlier | +3.31% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | three days earlier | +0.29% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | five days earlier | +0.39% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | three days earlier | -1.58% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | five days earlier | -0.85% | final price |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | three days earlier | +0.06% | final price |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | five days earlier | -2.00% | final price |
| Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) | three days earlier | -1.86% | final price |
| Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) | five days earlier | -2.90% | final price |
| Schwab Charles (SCHW) | three days earlier | +1.10% | final price |
| Schwab Charles (SCHW) | five days earlier | +3.02% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | three days earlier | +0.83% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | five days earlier | +0.89% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Sen. John Boozman bought Ishares Tr (IEF) (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 50 days before publication. Filed 21 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 55 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 55 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 50 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Laurel Lee sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 66 days before publication. Filed 16 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Horton D R (DHI), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Aug 2026. That is 73 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Lisa McClain bought Microsoft (MSFT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 30 Sep 2026. That is 29 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael Rulli sold Microsoft (MSFT), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 31 days before publication. Filed 2 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar sold Microsoft (MSFT), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Sep 2026. That is 35 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who is named in “Warsh’s AI Optimism May Box Him In at the Fed”
Companies tied to this story
- TLT Ishares Tr
In “Warsh’s AI Optimism May Box Him In at the Fed,” Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- IEF Ishares Tr
Ishares Tr (IEF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “Warsh’s AI Optimism May Box Him In at the Fed.” Reason on file: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- QQQ Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1
For “Warsh’s AI Optimism May Box Him In at the Fed,” Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Invesco QQQ: it holds the big tech and AI names. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase
Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “Warsh’s AI Optimism May Box Him In at the Fed.” Reason on file: JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- BAC Bank Of America
Bank Of America (BAC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “Warsh’s AI Optimism May Box Him In at the Fed.” Reason on file: Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- DHI Horton D R
Horton D R (DHI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “Warsh’s AI Optimism May Box Him In at the Fed.” Reason on file: D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- SCHW Schwab Charles
In “Warsh’s AI Optimism May Box Him In at the Fed,” Schwab Charles (SCHW) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- MSFT Microsoft
In “Warsh’s AI Optimism May Box Him In at the Fed,” Microsoft (MSFT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Microsoft (prepackaged software): big tech's AI spending and demand drive its shares. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story
How “Warsh’s AI Optimism May Box Him In at the Fed” reaches Ishares Tr (TLT)
Ishares Tr (TLT) is the company in “Warsh’s AI Optimism May Box Him In at the Fed,” the 29 Oct 2026 this story story.
What ties Ishares Tr (TLT) to the headline is this: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
Also listed, Ishares Tr (IEF): iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
The price range for Ishares Tr (TLT), and the dates in the story
IEF traded between 88.64 and 91.23 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 90.08. QQQ traded between 701.18 and 762.84 across 17 sessions. The latest close on file is 721.22. TLT traded between 76.44 and 81.94 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 79.46.
How solid “Warsh’s AI Optimism May Box Him In at the Fed” looks
46 out of 100
“Warsh’s AI Optimism May Box Him In at the Fed” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.