Washington’s efforts to block Beijing’s access to Nvidia chips could spark a ‘short-lived U.S.-China trade war’ that rattles markets
Published . Updated .
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Meanwhile, top officials from Nvidia and the Commerce Department face a series of congressional hearings next month.
Directly affected
- NVDA Nvidia
Named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF
VanEck Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “chips” (semiconductors) in this story.
- SOXX iShares Semiconductor ETF
iShares Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “chips” (semiconductors) in this story.
- XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR
Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tradewar” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- KWEB KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF: it holds Chinese internet companies. Linked by “china” (Chinese tech) in this story.
- FXI iShares China Large-Cap ETF
iShares China Large-Cap ETF holds stocks listed in China, which this story is about (“china”).
- ASML ASML Holding N.V
ASML Holding N.V (special industry machinery): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “chips” (semiconductors) in this story.
- TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “chips” (semiconductors) in this story.
- AVGO Broadcom
Broadcom (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “chips” (semiconductors) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | +12.42% | +1.63% | base | -2.10% | after close | after close | after close |
| SMH | -7.61% | -3.62% | base | -3.10% | after close | after close | after close |
| SOXX | -11.91% | -5.47% | base | -3.76% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLI | -3.98% | -0.39% | base | -0.54% | after close | after close | after close |
| KWEB | +8.65% | +5.07% | base | -0.04% | after close | after close | after close |
| FXI | +4.36% | +2.79% | base | -0.10% | after close | after close | after close |
| ASML | -4.85% | +0.72% | base | -0.33% | after close | after close | after close |
| TSM | -7.50% | -2.24% | base | -1.80% | after close | after close | after close |
| AVGO | -19.45% | -8.83% | base | -4.84% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Meanwhile, top officials from Nvidia and the Commerce Department face a series of congressional hearings next month.
Source: MarketWatch
Defense
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | that day | -0.33% | still updating |
| ASML | three days earlier | +0.72% | final price |
| ASML | five days earlier | -4.85% | final price |
| AVGO | that day | -4.84% | still updating |
| AVGO | three days earlier | -8.83% | final price |
| AVGO | five days earlier | -19.45% | final price |
| FXI | that day | -0.10% | still updating |
| FXI | three days earlier | +2.79% | final price |
| FXI | five days earlier | +4.36% | final price |
| KWEB | that day | -0.04% | still updating |
| KWEB | three days earlier | +5.07% | final price |
| KWEB | five days earlier | +8.65% | final price |
| NVDA | that day | -2.10% | still updating |
| NVDA | three days earlier | +1.63% | final price |
| NVDA | five days earlier | +12.42% | final price |
| SMH | that day | -3.10% | still updating |
| SMH | three days earlier | -3.62% | final price |
| SMH | five days earlier | -7.61% | final price |
| SOXX | that day | -3.76% | still updating |
| SOXX | three days earlier | -5.47% | final price |
| SOXX | five days earlier | -11.91% | final price |
| TSM | that day | -1.80% | still updating |
| TSM | three days earlier | -2.24% | final price |
| TSM | five days earlier | -7.50% | final price |
| XLI | that day | -0.54% | still updating |
| XLI | three days earlier | -0.39% | final price |
| XLI | five days earlier | -3.98% | final price |
Congressional trades in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Nvidia (NVDA), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 23 Oct 2026. That is 21 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros sold Nvidia (NVDA), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 20 Oct 2026. That is 24 days before publication. Filed 10 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Nvidia (NVDA) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 7 Oct 2026. That is 37 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Asml Holding (ASML) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Oct 2026. That is 21 days before publication. Filed 28 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Cleo Fields bought Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Oct 2026. That is 35 days before publication. Filed 22 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros bought Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 22 Sep 2026. That is 52 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Aug 2026. That is 80 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Broadcom (AVGO) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 13 Oct 2026. That is 31 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Broadcom (AVGO) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 49 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. John J McGuire III sold Broadcom (AVGO) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Sep 2026. That is 50 days before publication. Filed 1 Nov 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
How solid the defense case looks
12 out of 100Price not final
“Washington’s efforts to block Beijing’s access to Nvidia chips could spark a ‘short-lived U.S.-China trade war’ that rattles markets” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources. The price is not final yet.