Geopolitics Alpha

Donald Trump, Venezuelan oil, and ‘the 51st state’

Published . Updated .

Donald Trump, Venezuelan oil, and ‘the 51st state’

As first barrel of Venezuelan crude arrives in the US, controversial oil deal with Caracas is seen by many as US asset seizure

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • USO United States Oil Fund+7.3% 30d

    United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.2% 30d

    Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF+40.2% 19d

    Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story.

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+10.3% 14d

    ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • CVX Chevron+8.4% 30d

    Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • COP ConocoPhillips+8.0% 30d

    ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • SHEL Shell+0.1% 13d

    Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • FRO Frontline+2.8% 30d

    Frontline (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
USO-2.52%-0.26%base-1.27%after closeafter closeafter close
XLE-1.29%+1.72%base+0.29%after closeafter closeafter close
BWETNo price data for this ticker———————
XOM-2.14%+1.35%base+0.44%after closeafter closeafter close
CVX-1.18%+1.19%base+0.52%after closeafter closeafter close
COP-2.27%+1.58%base+0.38%after closeafter closeafter close
SHELNo price data for this ticker———————
FRONo price data for this ticker———————

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

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Donald Trump, Venezuelan oil, and ‘the 51st state’ The Week

Source: The Week

United States Oil Fund (USO) since “Donald Trump, Venezuelan oil, and ‘the 51st state’,” compared with the market

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
Conocophillips (COP)that day+0.38%still updating
Conocophillips (COP)three days earlier+1.58%final price
Conocophillips (COP)five days earlier-2.27%final price
Chevron (CVX)that day+0.52%still updating
Chevron (CVX)three days earlier+1.19%final price
Chevron (CVX)five days earlier-1.18%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)that day-1.27%still updating
United States Oil Fund (USO)three days earlier-0.26%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)five days earlier-2.52%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)that day+0.29%still updating
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)three days earlier+1.72%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)five days earlier-1.29%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)that day+0.44%still updating
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)three days earlier+1.35%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)five days earlier-2.14%final price

Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

Who is named in “Donald Trump, Venezuelan oil, and ‘the 51st state’”

Companies tied to this story

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    For “Donald Trump, Venezuelan oil, and ‘the 51st state’,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr

    In “Donald Trump, Venezuelan oil, and ‘the 51st state’,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • BWET Amplify Commodity Trust

    Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “Donald Trump, Venezuelan oil, and ‘the 51st state’.” Reason on file: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings

    ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “Donald Trump, Venezuelan oil, and ‘the 51st state’.” Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • CVX Chevron

    In “Donald Trump, Venezuelan oil, and ‘the 51st state’,” Chevron (CVX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • COP Conocophillips

    In “Donald Trump, Venezuelan oil, and ‘the 51st state’,” Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • SHEL Shell

    Shell (SHEL) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Oct 2026 story “Donald Trump, Venezuelan oil, and ‘the 51st state’.” Reason on file: Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • FRO Frontline

    In “Donald Trump, Venezuelan oil, and ‘the 51st state’,” Frontline (FRO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Frontline (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story

How “Donald Trump, Venezuelan oil, and ‘the 51st state’” reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)

United States Oil Fund (USO) is the company in “Donald Trump, Venezuelan oil, and ‘the 51st state’,” the 29 Oct 2026 Energy story.

United States Oil Fund (USO) is on the page because United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

Also listed, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE): Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

Price levels for United States Oil Fund (USO)

BWET traded between 788.51 and 1047.07 across 17 sessions. The latest close on file is 907.20. USO traded between 141.82 and 169.96 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 166.69. XLE traded between 61.05 and 69.86 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 68.46.

The energy score for United States Oil Fund (USO)

46 out of 100Price not final

“Donald Trump, Venezuelan oil, and ‘the 51st state’” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.