One-year inflation swap falls below 2% amid falling oil and gasoline prices (XB1:COM:Commodity)
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U.S. one-year inflation swaps slip below 2% as oil futures fall more than 20% from late-October highs; swaps are not CPI forecasts.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund-1.1% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.9% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF-0.3% 30d
iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+3.1% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+4.0% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- SHEL Shell+2.7% 10d
Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- WMT Walmart+20.2% 30d
Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +10.89% | +3.88% | base | -2.86% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | +7.65% | -0.44% | base | -0.34% | after close | after close | after close |
| TIP | +0.06% | +0.20% | base | -0.58% | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | +7.73% | +0.33% | base | -0.76% | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | +6.86% | +1.02% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| COP | +7.34% | +0.71% | base | +0.14% | after close | after close | after close |
| SHEL | +5.41% | +1.27% | base | -2.54% | after close | after close | after close |
| WMT | -0.64% | +1.67% | base | -0.18% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
One-year inflation swap falls below 2% amid falling oil and gasoline prices (XB1:COM:Commodity) Seeking Alpha
Source: Seeking Alpha
United States Oil Fund (USO) compared with energy stocks (XLE) since 10 Nov 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conocophillips (COP) | that day | +0.14% | still updating |
| Conocophillips (COP) | three days earlier | +0.71% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | five days earlier | +7.34% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | +1.02% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | +6.86% | final price |
| Shell (SHEL) | that day | -2.54% | still updating |
| Shell (SHEL) | three days earlier | +1.27% | final price |
| Shell (SHEL) | five days earlier | +5.41% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | that day | -0.58% | still updating |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | three days earlier | +0.20% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | five days earlier | +0.06% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | that day | -2.86% | still updating |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | +3.88% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | +10.89% | final price |
| Walmart (WMT) | that day | -0.18% | still updating |
| Walmart (WMT) | three days earlier | +1.67% | final price |
| Walmart (WMT) | five days earlier | -0.64% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | that day | -0.34% | still updating |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | -0.44% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | +7.65% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | that day | -0.76% | still updating |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | +0.33% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | +7.73% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 27 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 71 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 27 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 48 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 76 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 78 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 81 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a dependent child), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 13 Oct 2026. That is 28 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 7 Oct 2026. That is 34 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 39 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who collects and who pays in energy
Likely winners
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
In “One-year inflation swap falls below 2% amid falling oil and gasoline prices (XB1:COM:Commodity),” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
In “One-year inflation swap falls below 2% amid falling oil and gasoline prices (XB1:COM:Commodity),” Chevron (CVX) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
No up or down call on file
- USO United States Oil Fund
In “One-year inflation swap falls below 2% amid falling oil and gasoline prices (XB1:COM:Commodity),” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
For “One-year inflation swap falls below 2% amid falling oil and gasoline prices (XB1:COM:Commodity),” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- TIP Ishares Tr
In “One-year inflation swap falls below 2% amid falling oil and gasoline prices (XB1:COM:Commodity),” Ishares Tr (TIP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- COP Conocophillips
Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 10 Nov 2026 story “One-year inflation swap falls below 2% amid falling oil and gasoline prices (XB1:COM:Commodity).” Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
How energy news reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)
United States Oil Fund (USO) is the company in “One-year inflation swap falls below 2% amid falling oil and gasoline prices (XB1:COM:Commodity),” the 10 Nov 2026 Energy story.
What ties United States Oil Fund (USO) to the headline is this: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
A second company, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE), is listed for a different reason: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
What this energy story puts on the calendar
TIP traded between 103.77 and 105.61 across 16 sessions. The latest close on file is 105.27. USO traded between 143.02 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 148.41. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70.
What the saved facts support for United States Oil Fund (USO)
46 out of 100Price not final
“One-year inflation swap falls below 2% amid falling oil and gasoline prices (XB1:COM:Commodity)” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.