The Strait of Hormuz: The Conflict May Be About Oil, But the Bill Is Being Paid by All of Us
Published . Updated .
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Former Global Chief Economist for JPMorgan Chase (Ph.D. in Economics) & Current Global Keynote Speaker for Hire
Directly affected
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase-1.4% 30d
Named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund-1.1% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+7.5% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “hormuz” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF+1.2% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “hormuz” (defense) in this story.
- FRO Frontline+1.6% 30d
Frontline (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “hormuz” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+2.9% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- INSW International Seaways-7.8% 19d
International Seaways (water transportation): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “hormuz” (tanker shipping) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPMPrices arriving within minutes | — | — | — | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| USO | +1.59% | -3.20% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | -4.15% | -3.23% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BWET | +16.99% | -9.44% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| ITA | -3.72% | +1.00% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| FRO | -2.89% | -6.19% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | -2.28% | -3.14% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | -1.78% | -2.44% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| INSWPrices arriving within minutes | — | — | — | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
The Strait of Hormuz: The Conflict May Be About Oil, But the Bill Is Being Paid by All of Us Substack
Source: Substack
Strait of Hormuz
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| BWET | three days earlier | -9.44% | final price |
| BWET | five days earlier | +16.99% | final price |
| CVX | three days earlier | -2.44% | final price |
| CVX | five days earlier | -1.78% | final price |
| FRO | three days earlier | -6.19% | final price |
| FRO | five days earlier | -2.89% | final price |
| ITA | three days earlier | +1.00% | final price |
| ITA | five days earlier | -3.72% | final price |
| USO | three days earlier | -3.20% | final price |
| USO | five days earlier | +1.59% | final price |
| XLE | three days earlier | -3.23% | final price |
| XLE | five days earlier | -4.15% | final price |
| XOM | three days earlier | -3.14% | final price |
| XOM | five days earlier | -2.28% | final price |
Congressional trades in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a dependent child), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 15 Oct 2026. That is 29 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 8 Oct 2026. That is 36 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 70 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 30 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 74 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 30 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 51 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 72 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Strait of Hormuz, seven days against thirty
Geopolitics Alpha has 208 stories about Strait of Hormuz from the past 7 days and 709 stories from the past 30. That is about its usual pace over the past month. “The Strait of Hormuz: The Conflict May Be About Oil, But the Bill Is Being Paid by All of Us” is tagged to Strait of Hormuz.
How solid the energy case looks
12 out of 100
“The Strait of Hormuz: The Conflict May Be About Oil, But the Bill Is Being Paid by All of Us” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources.