Trump Says No Iran Deal Needed; Oil Prices Jump
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President Donald Trump said the U.S. did not need to reach a deal with Iran to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund-1.1% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+7.5% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “iran” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF+1.2% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+2.9% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- OXY Occidental Petroleum+10.3% 18d
Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+6.5% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +4.74% | +0.82% | base | +3.43% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | -2.64% | -2.21% | base | +1.50% | after close | after close | after close |
| BWET | +23.15% | +6.41% | base | +5.26% | after close | after close | after close |
| ITA | -7.07% | -2.20% | base | -2.16% | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | -0.81% | -1.14% | base | +1.84% | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | -0.13% | -1.13% | base | +1.51% | after close | after close | after close |
| OXY | -1.40% | -2.40% | base | +2.25% | after close | after close | after close |
| COP | -1.64% | -2.34% | base | +1.97% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Trump Says No Iran Deal Needed; Oil Prices Jump Investor's Business Daily
Source: Investor's Business Daily
How Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) moved after the last 16 energy shocks
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) the next day, across 16 earlier stories: average -6.17%, largest gain -2.99%, largest drop -6.96%, from 10 prices.
| Company | When | Average | Largest gain | Largest drop | Prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | the next day | -6.17% | -2.99% | -6.96% | 10 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days later | -6.07% | -2.06% | -7.07% | 10 |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | the next day | -15.04% | -4.78% | -19.70% | 16 |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | three days later | -29.26% | -26.29% | -30.61% | 16 |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | the next day | -5.35% | -1.94% | -6.87% | 13 |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days later | -5.88% | -2.97% | -7.18% | 13 |
| Chevron (CVX) | the next day | -3.60% | -1.81% | -4.40% | 13 |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days later | -5.49% | -2.66% | -6.75% | 13 |
- UAE Mulls Third Crude Oil Pipeline to Avoid Strait of Hormuz
- UAE mulls 3rd oil pipeline to bypass Strait of Hormuz: Report
- UAE Mulls Third Crude Oil Pipeline To Avoid Strait Of Hormuz - Bloomberg News
- Europe Faces Lowest Storage Levels Since 2013 as Hormuz Crisis Cuts Global LNG Supply
- Hormuz Tensions Keep Global Shipping and Oil Markets Under Pressure
- Iran Says Four Oil Tankers Destroyed by Mines Near Strait of Hormuz
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) compared with energy stocks (XLE) since 12 Nov 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | that day | +5.26% | final price |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | three days earlier | +6.41% | final price |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | five days earlier | +23.15% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | that day | +1.97% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | three days earlier | -2.34% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | five days earlier | -1.64% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | that day | +1.51% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | -1.13% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | -0.13% | final price |
| ITA | that day | -2.16% | final price |
| ITA | three days earlier | -2.20% | final price |
| ITA | five days earlier | -7.07% | final price |
| Occidental Petroleum (OXY) | that day | +2.25% | final price |
| Occidental Petroleum (OXY) | three days earlier | -2.40% | final price |
| Occidental Petroleum (OXY) | five days earlier | -1.40% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | that day | +3.43% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | +0.82% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | +4.74% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | that day | +1.50% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | -2.21% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | -2.64% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | that day | +1.84% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | -1.14% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | -0.81% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 29 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 73 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 29 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 50 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 71 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 83 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 78 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 80 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 83 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Strait of Hormuz on the map for this story
Geopolitics Alpha has 217 stories about Strait of Hormuz from the past 7 days and 705 stories from the past 30. That is about its usual pace over the past month. “Trump Says No Iran Deal Needed; Oil Prices Jump” is tagged to Strait of Hormuz.
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) on one side of this energy story
Likely winners
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
In “Trump Says No Iran Deal Needed; Oil Prices Jump,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
In “Trump Says No Iran Deal Needed; Oil Prices Jump,” Chevron (CVX) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- OXY Occidental Petroleum
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) tends to benefit, medium confidence in the 12 Nov 2026 story “Trump Says No Iran Deal Needed; Oil Prices Jump.” Reason on file: Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
No up or down call on file
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 12 Nov 2026 story “Trump Says No Iran Deal Needed; Oil Prices Jump.” Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- BWET Amplify Commodity Trust
For “Trump Says No Iran Deal Needed; Oil Prices Jump,” Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story
- COP Conocophillips
In “Trump Says No Iran Deal Needed; Oil Prices Jump,” Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- FRO Frontline
In “Trump Says No Iran Deal Needed; Oil Prices Jump,” Frontline (FRO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Frontline (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) and the energy link
On 12 Nov 2026, “Trump Says No Iran Deal Needed; Oil Prices Jump” is the story that connects Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) to Strait of Hormuz.
The link for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is this: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Also listed, Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET): Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story
Price levels for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)
BWET traded between 788.51 and 1047.07 across 17 sessions. The latest close on file is 907.20. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70. XOM traded between 167.40 and 188.47 across 17 sessions. The latest close on file is 169.46.
How strong the case is around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)
46 out of 100
“Trump Says No Iran Deal Needed; Oil Prices Jump” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.