Bearish EIA? Market Disagrees: Hormuz Risks Fuel 3% Oil Rally
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This report is about oil and tanker shipping. Names like XOM and CVX typically gain because exxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund-1.1% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+7.5% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- FRO Frontline+1.6% 30d
Frontline (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+2.9% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- DHT DHT Holdings
DHT Holdings (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- INSW International Seaways-7.8% 19d
International Seaways (water transportation): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +1.59% | -3.20% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | -4.15% | -3.23% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BWET | +16.99% | -9.44% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| FRO | -2.89% | -6.19% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | -2.28% | -3.14% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | -1.78% | -2.44% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| DHT | -7.22% | -6.64% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| INSW | -6.17% | -6.05% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Bearish EIA? Market Disagrees: Hormuz Risks Fuel 3% Oil Rally Anas Alhajji | Substack
Source: Anas Alhajji | Substack
Strait of Hormuz
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| BWET | three days earlier | -9.44% | final price |
| BWET | five days earlier | +16.99% | final price |
| CVX | three days earlier | -2.44% | final price |
| CVX | five days earlier | -1.78% | final price |
| DHT | three days earlier | -6.64% | final price |
| DHT | five days earlier | -7.22% | final price |
| FRO | three days earlier | -6.19% | final price |
| FRO | five days earlier | -2.89% | final price |
| INSW | three days earlier | -6.05% | final price |
| INSW | five days earlier | -6.17% | final price |
| USO | three days earlier | -3.20% | final price |
| USO | five days earlier | +1.59% | final price |
| XLE | three days earlier | -3.23% | final price |
| XLE | five days earlier | -4.15% | final price |
| XOM | three days earlier | -3.14% | final price |
| XOM | five days earlier | -2.28% | final price |
Congressional trades in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 30 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 74 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 30 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 51 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 72 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
The Strait of Hormuz count beside this story
Geopolitics Alpha has 210 stories about Strait of Hormuz from the past 7 days and 711 stories from the past 30. That is about its usual pace over the past month. “Bearish EIA? Market Disagrees: Hormuz Risks Fuel 3% Oil Rally” is tagged to Strait of Hormuz.
How solid the energy case looks
12 out of 100
“Bearish EIA? Market Disagrees: Hormuz Risks Fuel 3% Oil Rally” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources.